Saturday, October 18, 2014

The White Picket Fence Dream: Timing the Full Recovery (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows privately owned 1-unit housing starts per capita. I have added a median in blue and an exponential trend in red. When the two meet, we've fully recovered! Yay!

Click to enlarge.

May 2025! Mark it on your calendars!

The future's so bright, we need a montage!

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart


Stagflationary Mark said...

I sure hope we don't experience an exponential trend failure in the next 11 years. My estimate for a full recovery would be way off!

Seems silly to worry about it though. How hard can it be to keep this economic expansion going for a grand total of 191 months (June 2009 to May 2025)?

What? The previous record was 120 months? Child's play!

Keep the faith!

Anonymous said...

QE of little faith.

Stagflationary Mark said...


I see the flood from a Fed Chairman
Be QE live, or be QE dead
They'll pump out cash to make some bread

Troy said...

I made a comment on Reddit:

finding some FRED love to educate some people.

Troy said...

per-capita (age-15-64) hours worked per week

Stagflationary Mark said...


I read/skimmed all the comments in the thread. It doesn't look to me that the FRED love educated many. It was a very good attempt though, lol. Sigh. :(

In all seriousness, it would seem that you would have needed to reference a few sci-fi movies/books to get a reply, rather than dwell on cold hard facts. Go figure.

I'm especially amused by the seemingly widespread "logic" that if sci-fi has been predicting doom and gloom for centuries and has been wrong about it actually happening, then we can safely assume that doom and gloom cannot happen. The future will always be brighter than the present. (For what it is worth, I'm not a believer in the science "fiction" theory.)

Fritz_O said...

Timing the Full Rentership Society.

Stagflationary Mark said...


I think we're already there. If I really do own my house free and clear, then why do I have to keep sending in my property tax payments?

I'm not opposed to paying property taxes of course (or the rich would own all the land and never give it up), but I don't really feel like I "own" my home. Feels more like I'm renting it from the government.

Fritz_O said...

why do I have to keep sending in my property tax payments?

I wonder how many pick-up truck owners with "No Fear" stickers in the back window consider how fearful they are of what will happen if/when they don't pay their property taxes on their dwelling?

Stagflationary Mark said...


"Know Fear!" ;)