New York City's Theoretical Jobs of the Future

Click to enlarge.

This chart implies that not only will every worker in New York City be working in the food services and drinking places industry at some point in the future, but the trend has accelerated to the upside in recent years. Note the exponential trend failure that began in 2009.

So why do I call it theoretical? Seems fairly clear cut. Right? Well...

A restaurant glut will happen long before we get to 100% on this chart. In fact, it might already be happening.

October 8, 2014
City Restaurants Multiply, Despite High-Profile Closures

The widely held notion that rising rents are making it nearly impossible to survive as a restaurant in the city received its ultimate endorsement this summer when celebrity restaurateur Danny Meyer said the Union Square Café would move from its longtime home on East 16th Street.

...

Last month, the owner of Angelica Kitchen, a vegetarian institution in the East Village, put out a plea to patrons to come often to help the restaurant stay afloat. The rent has risen to more than $22,000 a month. In its early days at a different location on St. Mark’s Place, the restaurant paid $450 a month. “How many more dragon bowls can I sell?” said owner Leslie McEachern.

...

Veterans of New York’s unforgiving culinary scene question the staying power of the thousands of new dining spots.

For what it is worth, I question the staying power too. Big time! But what would you expect? I write an Illusion of Prosperity blog. Sigh.

In any event, I offer a prediction that is guaranteed to succeed. We will return to the exponential trend line in the chart at some point in the future and we will fail to the downside. It is a mathematical certainty. For example, it is utterly impossible to stay above the trend once the trend hits 100%. In all likelihood, it will fail much, much sooner than that. Will the failure happen in my lifetime? That I cannot say for sure. I could die early, lol. Sigh.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart