Thursday, October 30, 2014

Food Services and Drinking Places Employee Productivity

The following chart shows food services and drinking places employee productivity (as measured by sales per employee, compared to other retail employees).

Click to enlarge.

The first fully automated restaurant chain is going to make a killing.

And by killing, I really mean:

1. It will break the exponential trend channel in a major way.
2. It will put many non-automated restaurants in immediate peril.
3. 10.7 nonfarm payroll jobs will instantly be at risk.
4. Vehicle miles traveled per capita will drop even more.
5. The homeownership rate will drop even more.
6. The food stamp program will be expanded even more.
7. Deflation and QE Infinity will stick to the headlines.
8. The hyperinflationists will continue to get poned.
9. The Japanese will laugh at the Fed's hubris and futility.
10. CNBC will continue to warn us about rising interest rates.*

* I don't think anything can actually stop CNBC from warning us about rising interest rates. It appears to be a constant in life. Maybe someday they'll get it right, but I somehow kind of doubt it.

December 30, 2010
CNBC: Who's Afraid of Rising Rates? Pros Get Ready For Move

"I would certain want to underweight Treasurys," Kevin Giddis, president of Morgan Keegan's fixed income capital markets division, said in a CNBC interview. "You've got to be cautious from totally getting out of bonds. Stay with the shorter duration, stay with the wide-spread securities and you'll be fine."

Worst advice ever! Me "would certain want" many thing back then. Shorter duration crap, me said. Me buy long end. Mmmm, good. Brave me was. Me still own.

Hey, it's just a Tarzan theory. I'm not a a Pro. This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart


Stagflationary Mark said...

Worst advice ever!

It really was.

30 Year Treassury Yield

Yielded 4.43% on December 30, 2010. As seen in the chart, that yield didn't hang around long. In hindsight, it was a buying opportunity.

Just 9 months later that yield had fallen below 3% during the supposed "rising rate environment".

As of October 28, 2014, it yields 3.06%.

dearieme said...

At the moment the perpetual Gilt, "War Loan", pays 3.81% p.a. It's "perpetual" in the sense that unless HMG uses its right to "call" it, it runs for ever, or until the end of the UK, whichever comes sooner.

P.S. The war in question was 1914-18.

Stagflationary Mark said...


WWI is the "gilt" that keeps on giving!

Hahaha! Sigh.

Fritz_O said...

6. The food stamp program will be expanded even more.


And SNAP will continue to be funded by all the tax revenue from all the non-existent nonfarm payroll jobs from number 3, and all the tax revenue from all the gas purchased to drive fewer miles per capita in number 4, and all the non-increased property tax revenue from number 5.

3 + 4 + 5 = 6

It's Greenspan/Bernanke/Yellen math for the win!

Stagflationary Mark said...


And in the real world...

3 + 4 + 5 = 6 x 2

It's like double "mint" gum! ;)