Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Exponential Trend Failure(s) of the Day: San Francisco Tech Pulse

Click to enlarge.

The Tech Pulse Index is a coincidence index of activity in the U.S. information technology sector. The index interpreted as the health of the tech sector. The indicators used to compute the index include investment in IT goods, consumption of personal computers and software, employment in the IT sector, industrial production of the technology sector, and shipments by the technology sector.

1. The purple trend failed first (18.9% annual growth rate).
2. The weakened blue trend failed next (7.5% annual growth rate).
3. When will the weakest red trend fail (4.0% annual growth rate)?

The orange trend shows 0.0% growth since June of 1996. For those keeping track at home, that was nearly two decades ago. If this index represents the health of the tech sector, then the patient is flatlining.

October 7, 2014
Cramer’s golden rule for long-term market prosperity

Jim Cramer believes the stock market presents the best path to prosperity. But only if you follow this rule: Know what you own.

That may sound somewhat simple; it may even seem a little patronizing, but all too many times the "Mad Money" host is confounded to learn that investors don't really understand their holdings.

Long-term prosperity? The "Mad Money" host understands *his* holdings? Seriously? Forehead. Desk. Whack. Whack. Whack.

February 9, 2000
Winners of the New World - Jim Cramer

So, if you can't own the retailers, and you can't own transports, and you can't own banks and brokers and financials and you can't own commodity makers and you can't own the newspapers, and you can't own the machinery stocks, what can you own?

A-ha, that just leaves us with tech. That's why we keep coming back to it. That's why, despite the 80% increase in the Nasdaq last year, we are looking at another record year now. It is by that process of elimination that I have picked my top 10. And my next 10 and my next 10 after. Only those companies are worth owning. The rest?

You can have them.

In hindsight, the tech "winners of the new world" imploded. It's all perfectly understandable. The stock market, as he says, presents the best path to prosperity. Implosions add value, lol. Sigh.

Source Data:
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco: Tech Pulse Data Releases
St. Louis Fed: San Francisco Tech Pulse

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