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What your dog's costume says about the economy: The week ahead
Macke also asserts, “There are no items on the planet earth as discretionary as dog Halloween costumes.” The National Retail Federation says the average person will spend $77.52 this Halloween, compared to $75.03 last year...
$77.52 / $75.03 = 3.3% Growth Rate
3.3% growth not counting inflation! Woohoo! If this won't drive the 30-year treasury bond yield above 3.3% then nothing will! And with typical hourly earnings growth seemingly topping out at 2.3%, we know 3.3% is sustainable!
November 22, 2011
Superbunker Mentality
I should have never allowed our dog Honey to study the European debt crisis. She entered the superbunker and there's just no getting her out.
Our dog Honey remains bunkered. It's worse now. She seems insulted by the premise that a dog Halloween costume is declared to be the most discretionary item on the planet earth. Surely there is a "softer side" item even more discretionary?
The following chart shows real monthly department stores' sales per capita (excluding leased departments, September 2014 dollars).
Click to enlarge.
1. The linear trend in blue failed in 1999.
2. The exponential decay trend has yet to fail.
3. Just think what that says about the economy!
January 16, 2014
Stores Confront New World of Reduced Shopper Traffic
Anthony Dolphin, 23, a mechanical engineer from Westborough, Mass., said he likes to look up deals online before making the trek to stores. Even so, he only made three or four short trips to stores over the holidays.
"I just buy the essentials and pay off student loans with the rest," he said.
"I just buy the essentials and pay off student loans with the rest," he said.
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
8 comments:
Not a lot of economic security being felt on Main Street ,
How about Rodeo Drive ?
The Onion: NATIONAL NEWS HIGHLIGHTS • Local • Mar 7, 2011
LOS ANGELES, CA—Determined to experience the full spectrum of LA life, vacationing housewife Diane Straub spent all day shopping on Rodeo Drive, and all night sleeping in a box on Skid Row.
Woohoo! ;)
Superbunker FTW! What a great picture of Honey.
I wonder why retail sales are always reported as nominal and never per capita on tout TV?
Mr Slippery,
It's probably the same reason that we don't see exponential trend failure charts of major economic data accompanied by clown horn sound effects, lol. Sigh.
Gallows humor.
It must be time to say it again: your "exponential trend failure" charts are pretty good stuff. I suspect I learn more about the state of the US economy from them than from any other source.
I wonder whether there's someone deep in the bowels of the Fed who studies them.
dearieme,
I wonder whether there's someone deep in the bowels of the Fed who studies them.
I certainly make every effort to aim them at the Fed. Take my latest one for instance. ;)
Exponential Trend Failure of the Day: Investment Fundamentals (Musical Tribute)
Perhaps the Fed is going to need to offer more "Juice" over the long-term than they currently believe. You know, in case a "pandemic of pension woes is plaguing the nation".
On the other hand, your taste in music is execrable.
dearieme,
Hahaha! For the record, I do not own any Juice Newton albums!
(When choosing between awesome music and awesome puns, well, guilty as charged. :))
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