Employment Report Shows Stagnation?

First, the unemployment rate. The official number is 4.7%. However, if you look at the raw data and opt for a bit more precision and a bit less rounding that number turns into 4.73%, up from last month's 4.70%.



This chart shows the growth of those not in the labor force from one quarter to the next and annualized. We're on a 3.8% annual pace for the last three months. The trend line is a 4th order polynomial and like all of my trend lines, please don't read too much into it. It is simply doing what my eyeball seems to see.



This chart shows the civilians who are working as a percent of those who could work. It also compares this to the Fed Funds rate. Note that the dropoff in the red line in recent months is not nearly as severe as it was during our last recession. If deflation is falling off the edge of the cliff and stagnation is simply sliding slowly into the abyss, I'd still be leaning slightly towards the stagnation side of the fence.

See Also:
Trend Line Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: The Employment Situation