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January 28, 2010
Davos 2010: George Soros warns gold is now the 'ultimate bubble'
Mr Soros, arguably the most famous hedge fund manager in history, warned that with interest rates low around the world, policymakers were risking generating new bubbles which could cause crashes in the future. In comments delivered on the fringe of the World Economic Forum, Mr Soros said: "When interest rates are low we have conditions for asset bubbles to develop, and they are developing at the moment. The ultimate asset bubble is gold."
January 29, 2010
Why Soros Is Probably Buying Gold Now
Given the moves by rival hedge fund managers like John Paulson into the yellow metal, it would be surprising if that living trading legend George Soros is not buying gold at the moment.
Surprise. The "living trading legend" was actually selling gold (see below).
February 19, 2010
Who's Right on Gold: Soros or Central Bankers?
What's going on here? Has Soros closed out his gold position since the end of last year after realizing he was buying into a bubble? That's highly improbable, in my opinion. More likely, the canny speculator has spotted what he believes is a bubble and he wants to be part of it.
It would seem that the "canny speculator" spotted the bubble and is now willing to be a little bit less a part of it.
May 18, 2010
What George Soros Bought and Sold in the First Quarter
His fund cut its stake in SPDR Gold Trust (NASDAQ: gld) by 9.6 percent
April Vehicle Sales Forecast: 15.8 million SAAR, Up 1% YoY
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From WardsAuto: April U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales to Start Second Quarter with
Lukewarm Growth (pay content). Brief excerpt:
The second quarter will be key t...
1 hour ago
15 comments:
Well I for one am alienated!
Is gold in bubble territory? Who can say for sure. We have had this debate many times so no need to rehash all that stuff. If deflation is upon us once again (it is) and you believe the panic button will be depressed worldwide (see the Germany news today? The latest panic) then the only thing our bankers know is to gun the printing press. Now they have become nuanced a bit over time and so none of that money will find its way to you via wage growth, thus keeping inflation (re-inflation?) low by the metrics used. If hot money finds it's way into gold the upsdie could be very large. Gold is still a tiny part of the investment world.
GYSC,
I'm just not much of a believer that we'll be seeing wage inflation any time soon, if ever.
The money spent is going to fixing holes in our sinking ship. The thought of the holes being fixed so well that the ship actually rises up out of the water is not really on my mind these days.
Just opinions of course.
That's all any of us have, opinions! My opinion and 2 dollars will get you a subway ride, which is a nice deal.
Here's my 2 cents...
Europe is struggling and needs to boost exports. To do this various sales representatives (leaders) will give us the impression that the euro is in trouble (threaten leaving euro etc...). This in turn will lower the euro and boost exports (just what they want). Lower euro = higher dollar = lower DJI.
This is very similar to dollar collapse propaganda.
on the other hand,
Gold is an emotional buy. it has limited low industrial value (relative to current sale price). The additional cost of gold is hype. People think that the dollar or euro might fall and think that gold is a safe haven. As a result, the value of gold is directly dependent on news media fear promotion.
(I have a terrible track record in investing, the above is NOT investment grade advice)
cheers,
remy
remy,
It's funny. I told my girlfriend yesterday that I never fell for the euro propaganda when all it did was go up. I'm not all that inclined to believe it now that all it does is go down. I'm relatively euro agnostic.
I will say that the financial news is really pushing the euro parity arguments these days. If that was a 100% sure thing, then the euro would be at parity right now. Why would it wait?
I'm always going to be a contrarian though. If I am told something over and over again on CNBC then I'm very likely to want to do the exact opposite. That brings me right back to Soros.
Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is make by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected. - Soros
P.S. I think you are too hard on yourself. If you have a terrible track record in investing then what you wrote WAS investment grade advice and you should be paid accordingly. You should start your own show and call it "MONEY GONE WILD!" ;)
GYSC,
That's all any of us have, opinions! My opinion and 2 dollars will get you a subway ride, which is a nice deal.
My dad used to say that a quarter and his opinion would get you a cup of coffee. (He said this many years ago obviously.)
So for $2.25 I can get two opinions, a really old cup of coffee, and a subway ride? Wow! I feel like I'm living in China or something. That's a great price!
Now how is America going to DOUBLE exports with a Euro at par? This keeps getting worse all the time!
And no I am not taking any more gold bait, I will remain calm!
GYSC,
Now how is America going to DOUBLE exports with a Euro at par?
Export or die? Export or die? Hmmm.
Export or die
Just as things were beginning to look desperate, her firm landed a contract to build an upmarket hotel in the Chinese city of Hangzhou.
Make a mental note of that city. I'll refer to it later in this comment.
The ease of exchanging information around the world has fuelled fears that even service jobs will be outsourced away from America. But those information flows also make it easier for firms like KPF to do business overseas. Once a week Ms Cusumano and her colleagues in Shanghai log into a teleconference to discuss the Hangzhou hotel and look at drawings with the aid of web-based conference software. And some nights when Ms Cusumano cannot sleep, she exchanges e-mails with her partners in Shanghai.
I expect a continuing bull market in "cannot sleep". Here's my reasoning.
March 24, 2010
Hangzhou Bubble!
SHANGHAI - Nearly 200 apartments in Hangzhou in East China's Zhejiang province sold out overnight on Monday - another signal that property in urban China continues to be in hot demand.
Sold at $613 per square foot. My opinion and $4.25 will buy you one square inch of prime Chinese apartment real estate. Any takers?
"Despite the central government's resolution to tame soaring property prices, they are unlikely to decrease, and may even increase higher and faster," Ma Ji, consulting manager with Centaline Property Agency Ltd in Shanghai told China Daily.
No problem. Just make the pie higher.
Make the Pie Higher
Oh Crap!
Cramer is in the pro-gold camp, I expect a full on meltdown to commence very shortly. Figures. I am going with scratch tickets from now on.
Attention Kmart shoppers...
Sears, Kmart to offer cash for gold
Published on May 18, 2010 7:30 AM
"Dow Jones Newswires | Sears Holdings Corp. said it will offer a consumer gold-and-silver buyback program by partnering with a third party, allowing customers to sell gold or silver items by mailing them in an envelope they can pick up at Sears and Kmart jewelry counters."
http://tinyurl.com/2u396qs
Uh-oh.
Again, when Kmart is SELLING gold then we have a problem.
GYSC,
I know I'm beating a dead horse here, but when I sold three silver dollars in 1982 the ads in the papers were looking to BUY them from me, not SELL them to me. I remember it like it was yesterday.
I entered a hotel room in the recently built and upscale Sheraton Hotel. They took a look at my coins. They threw them into a nearby white bucket nearly filled with ones just like them. They paid me $18 each.
It was near the very peak of the silver bubble. They were not looking to sell any coins to me. They simply wanted to BUY mine.
Just like now. Just sayin'.
watchtower,
I'm waiting for the new ad campaign.
The Harder Asset Side of Sears
November 13, 2000
The Harder Side of Sears
Here's why. The "softer side" of Sears has turned to mush.
GYSC,
I don't see it that way and here is why:
First off let me say this, I don't hunt, it's just not my thing, but I have grown up observing this type of culture here in the rural Midwest.
In the late 70's the fur market took off.
At the start there was one raw fur buyer in the small town in which we lived outside of.
At the end of that bubble there were numerous buyers in town, plus there would be strangers who would travel through the area buying fur, not unlike what is happening in the gold market today.
That boon lasted about ten years start to finish.
Just my observation and the reason why I go 'hmmmm' when I see items like the Sears/Kmart story.
watchtower,
That's a fascinating story. It reminds me of my experience with those 3 coins.
When I bought gold and silver in 2004 it was with the belief that I could have easily been caught up in the hysteria of the 1970s. I do think it could have ruined me.
It was therefore my plan to simply buy once and sell once. I thought, but was not sure, that I was buying at a reasonable price.
I told another that I was prepared to hold gold and silver for 30 years if necessary. A few years later that same person asked me why I sold so soon. It surprised him. I said that I found a price that was good enough to me. It therefore wasn't necessary to hold for 30 years. Even my relatively modest gains (50%) were worth roughly 10 years of treasury interest. What more could I reasonably ask of the investment?
At some point, in order to unlock the value of gold, one must sell gold to someone else. I was always uncomfortable being put in a position where I was reliant on someone else to tell me what gold is worth though. Instead, I want to know what the assets I own are worth to me.
Of course, hyperinflation could still make my decision a poor one. That's a risk I'm willing to take though. I was never really trying to protect myself against an economic apocalypse. Even then, Mad Max never carried gold from what I could see. I did not see him ever calculate gold to oil ratios. Canned goods to oil ratios were probably considered though. Toilet paper to oil ratios existed too I would guess, not that they would show us.
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