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Latest investment tip in China: Mung beans
Mung beans are three times more expensive than in January; garlic is up 20 fold as speculators and wholesalers corner the market.
Zhang Wuben's TV lectures on the healthful properties of mung bean water have become enormously popular nationwide in the past three months. His claims to be a qualified nutritionist have been debunked by investigative journalists, but thousands of Chinese are believed to be following his advice to boil three pounds of mung beans a day and drink the resulting broth instead of water in order to ward off everything from lung cancer to high blood pressure.
Meanwhile...
Stocks jump after China shows confidence in Europe
China's show of confidence in Europe let the market resume a rally that stalled late Wednesday following a report that the Chinese government was considering cutting its European debt holdings. If that were true, such a move would have signaled that China didn't think Europe would be able to contain the crisis. The agency that manages China's $2.5 trillion in foreign reserves denied the report.
Europe and Mung Beans. Mung Beans and Europe. They go together like two peas in a pod. Confidence games for the win.
ICE: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased Year-over-year in October
-
From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Serious delinquencies hit
17-month high while foreclosure activity remains historically muted
• At 3.45% ...
2 hours ago
9 comments:
Well I do have to say that Mung Bean Nuclease allowed some serious advancement in biotechnology and molecular DNA manipulation. Of course that enzyme gene can be cloned, expressed in a 500 liter vat and all the enzyme you will ever need can be made very cheap. Its enzyme deflation!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mung_bean_exonuclease
GYSC,
From your link...
Applications
Cleavage of hairpin loops.
No wonder the mung bean is so popular! ;)
Today Bob Pisani on CNBC touted the Dollar Bear ETF (UDN) and the bubbleheads on "The Call" were touting the Euro regaining strength relative to the USD. In addition, China is showing confidence (or is that CONfi"dense") in Europe.
OK, so what's an investor (term used lightly) to do? Obviously, go short the USD believing that the Euro is making a comeback.
So, what did I do today? Let's take a look:
Trade Type: BUY
Security Symbol: UUP
Quantity: 570
Price: $25.1999 @ 3:59:46
I must be crazy huh, using CNBC as a contrarian indicator, and adding 66% more to my previous UUP bullish on the dollar buy?
Actually, I'm not joking around with my money. It's just that this trend has not proven to have come to an end. And I have a hard and fast rule that if any investment I make yields a 7% gain (which UUP did at close yesterday) I incrementally add to the position. It's a hard and fast rule I use just like sell-stops.
At any rate, given the gains from the first position, and using my sell-stop strategy, I'm in a virtually can't lose situation here.
Let's sit back and see who's right. CNBC, or Mr. Market's trend.
I'm literally banking on Mr. Market.
G.H.,
I'm in a virtually can't lose situation here.
Dangerous words!
That said, I can't fault your optimistic pessimism, lol.
September 30, 2009
Sharing China’s confidence in the future
Three things are striking about this analysis. The first is the confidence that underwrites it, even accounting for its official status. There is no question that for all its internal tensions, its need for economic reform and the serious impact of its breathtaking economic growth, China’s policy makers believe China’s current developmental trend to be sustained, and sustainable. China’s assured handling of the 2008 Olympics was widely read as a sign of its growing international confidence. If anything, this is an even bolder statement.
This same 2008 Olympics that saw the Chinese stock market lose 2/3rds of its value? That 2008 Olympics?
SSE Composite Index
Yes, confidence abounds. As seen above, it's confidence, confidence, sustained, sustainable, and confidence.
G.H. Nice moves on UUP! I remember your previous post around december last year..
I exchanged $13k CAD for the same in USD with my parents who live in Canada (they earn USD so it's a win win for both)... since the exchange I am up ~5%.
I think most currencies will be struggling to keep interest rates low to contain housing bubbles and this may prop the USD...
Remy
Stag,
"Dangerous words!"
In this case, I do not agree that "virtually can't lose" are dangerous words. Here's why:
1. I would need to lose 3.3% on my total principle invested and gains from the first buy to go negative. (Note: this is based upon yesterday's close, that number will be much more in my favor after calculating today's close.) I'm not afraid of experiencing a drawdown so dramatic that I will not be able to get out in case the theatre doors are closing. More on this in a minute...
2. UUP has an avg. daily volume of approx. 4.8 million shares. At yesterday's close of 25.20 a share it sees about 125 million dollars moving in and out per day. It's highly liguid. The theatre doors are very wide (and it's no accident that I would chose a highly liquid issue to invest in these days.)
3. Even on volatile days, such as we've had recently, the bid/ask spreads are only a penny apart. That can mean alot, and I have some very recent personal experience to back that up with. Consider this:
Scottrade, Inc.
Intra-Day Trade Notification - May 06, 2010
Dear Client:
RE Account: *****************
Trade Type: SELL
Security Symbol: VXF
Quantity: 970
Price: $45.29 @ 2:41:00 PM
Notice anything special about that date? Yep, "flash crash" day. And the time? Yep, right smack dab in the middle of the downdraft. Why do I point this out? Because VXF has an average volume of only ~125K shares! And I was able to get my trade done with nary a problem during a market crash. And that's 10.6% off the VXF high of $51.00. I use a 10% sell-stop for sector and country funds compared to 7% for all others like index funds.
I'm not saying this is indicative of future results, however, it does stand in direct contrast to all the "noise" about busted trades and so on.
4. The beta on this ETF, measured against the S&P is about .3333. In other words, under all but the most unforseen circumstances, it would take a 10.2% move down on the S&P to get UUP to my 3.3% "break-even" point. Again, I personally don't feel any need to fear such an event happening, and I fully realize that this puts me in direct conflict with the writings of much smarter people than myself like the Denningers and Mish's of the world who might say otherwise.
Given the above, I'm unable to find a reason, at least a reason that is available to the public, to believe I'm living dangerously here. And if doing the kind of homework I've done on this type of investing still leads to me being blindsided, well, heck, I've got alot more problems than losing money.
The only real danger I can think of that could come back to haunt some day is that I really have no idea what is going on inside of UUP. It's a black box to me. And I don't have the inclination to dig into it. I guess that's my fault.
"I can't fault your optimistic pessimism"
Just call me a "Pessimista", ;)
Remy,
Just from reading your post I can tell that you probably know a heck of a lot more about currency trading than I do. Honestly, I don't know squat about currency trading. But curiously, I don't feel that I need to. Take a look at this spread sheet.
Noting UUP's location on this list, it's easy to see why I've been invested in UUP and out of just about everything else.
G.H. & Remy,
UUP up and away was clearly a good strategy lately!
The markets clearly turned nEUROtic, lol. ;)
Stag,
Clearly.
Me: I can see clearly now
Cleverbot: I can see all obstacles in my way.
Me: Gone are the dark clouds that had me blind
Cleverbot: Its gonna be a bright.
Me: bright (bright) Sun-Shiny day.
Cleverbot: Where is that located?
Me: Awwww man, you busted it!
Cleverbot: Dude your car was all like double parked.
Word ver: "intac". At least for the moment anyway, that appears to be the state of my portfolio.
I can see clearly now! I think that's worthy of a musical tribute. :)
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