Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Daring and Bold Prediction!

Quick! Someone find me an optimist. I'm looking to place a bet!

Click to enlarge.

We will never see 80% again.

That's right. I don't have any long-term faith in my own trend line. Oh the humanity!

I could be wrong of course. Perhaps the economy is so strong that we can go 15 more years without a recession?

See Also:
BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary
Trend Line Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart


Stagflationary Mark said...

The amusing part is that I could never actually win this bet of course.

An optimist would *never* throw in the towel, lol.

fried said...

Good luck finding an optimist. Treasury 10 years are below 2%...Spain is making everybody nervous. Of course, we just saw this movie, Greece. I understand they are working on a sequel already...the Italian Job. Lots of thrills ahead.

Stagflationary Mark said...


Good luck finding an optimist.

Are Men More Optimistic?

Men are strikingly more optimistic about the future performance of key economic and financial indicators than women.

Oh crap. That was published on February 1, 2008.

I wonder what that says about me? I wasn't at all optimistic.

Edmund hires a ship - Blackadder - BBC

Blackadder: Better a lap-dog to a slip of a girl than a ... git!

Hahaha! Sigh.

Troy said...

For optimism, we have 80 million boomers aged 50 to 66 currently.

Carousel age is 65 not 30, but once they finally get on it they'll leave a big hole in PAYEMS for the millennials.

80 million medicare beneficiaries by 2030! Hospitals will be impressing people off the street like it was 1812!

At a real cost of $15,000 per beneficiary, that's 24 million $50,000/yr jobs in 2030.

We'll still be growing our DOD investment by 2-3% a year so that will be another $1.3T/yr by 2030, ~24 million jobs in that sector.

We'll have 10M+ more children to keep off the streets in 2030 too, that's good for another million or so education jobbies.

And think of the spending power of 80 million retirees buying stuff. This actually might be the savior of the restaurant sector, too.

And what about the interest on our $40T national debt? At even Japanese-esque 1% yield that will distribute $400B/yr into the economy.

2030 is going to be a cornucopia of jobs!

Not sure where we're going to get the money for all this, but that's never stopped us before!

Stagflationary Mark said...


Not sure where we're going to get the money for all this, but that's never stopped us before!

We'll tax the bloggers retroactively based on the number of charts they've posted!!

Whoa. Hold on. Where did THAT come from? I better take my meds, lol. Sigh.