Monday, April 2, 2012

The Yield Curve vs. Wolf Creek Pass (Musical Tribute)


Click to enlarge.



Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

5 comments:

Stagflationary Mark said...

Japan's 10-year 1.01% treasury minus its 5-year 0.34% treasury is currently 0.67%.

Don't know why I even bring it up.

Troy said...

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=6ae

For some reason the path of systemic leverage (yellow) reminds me of http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWFjD_e9OAg

Stagflationary Mark said...

Troy,

"Tonight we have had the privilege of witnessing the greatest exhibition of guts and stamina in the history of the ring!"

Adrian!

Troy said...

FRED does the future now:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=6aw

Red lines are IMF projections!

I call this graph, "Pull the Other One".

It's utterly fascinating that I can look at this graph and not get any sense as to how things are going to evolve/devolve.

Somehow I suspect Japan's going to start tapping China for their debt rollover needs.

Demographically, Japan's race is run from here on out, which isn't necessarily a bad thing, IMO as you know. A rematch with China is simply unthinkable; in 2020 one side will have 160M military-aged men, and the other will have 10M -- given China's demos they'll have more unmarriable men than all of Japanese men combined.

~100 years ago the average Japanese man was a tough farmboy given sufficient state education to be willing to die for his country and be able to follow orders to do so, now he's either a metrosexual or former juvenile delinquent, depending on the urban/countryside divide.

Hey, I learned something else today:

http://tfw.cachefly.net/snm/images/nm/pyramids/ja-2020.png

vs

http://tfw.cachefly.net/snm/images/nm/pyramids/us-2020.png

shows how Japan's baby boom echo is about 15 years older than ours, coming in 1970 instead of ~1985!

Being a Gen Xer, I'm 5 years behind the tail of US's boom and 5 years ahead of Japan's echo boom.

Comparing these charts you can see why I like Japan's demographics better than the US's.

Looks to me that Japan is gradually "right-sizing" its population loading.

Us on the other hand are going the Idiocracy route.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Troy,

Us on the other hand are going the Idiocracy route.

We should hang out, lol. ;)