Optimism is definitely hard to quantify. Here's one way.
Click to enlarge.
When I became permabearish in 2004, I started eating out a lot less. That remains the case and will be the case well into the distant future. I think it would be a fair assessment to say that I am not optimistic.
And yet, as seen in the chart, here we are.
On the one hand, we have 8.2% unemployment and have experienced one of the worst decades in American history.
On the other hand, we've had a good year or two thanks to massive unsustainable stimulus. If we extrapolate those years into the distant future then it can mean only one thing. We're invincible!
Source Data:
U.S. Census: Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report
"The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates"
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Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: "The Lock-In Effect
of Rising Mortgage Rates"
A brief excerpt:
Here is new working paper from Feder...
10 hours ago
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