Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Time to Order Your Dow Million Hat!

Dow 100,000: Fact or Fiction

A seasoned investment strategist, Charles W. Kadlec has a startling answer: we are at an historic moment: the beginning of a Great Prosperity - a decade or more of above average economic growth. What lies ahead is a period of unparalleled opportunities for investors with a strategic outlook. In this provocative book, Kadlec reveals the forces driving this monumental boom and examines its potential impact. DOW 100,000 supports its supremely bullish premise: the DJIA is headed for a record 100,000 by the year 2020.

Great Prosperity!! You read it here first!!

"We know that it's possible because we have just lived through an equivalent tenfold increase in just the last 17 years." -- WIRED, 9/99

1982: 1,000
1999: 10,000
2016: 100,000
2033: 1,000,000

Don't be the last to order your Dow Million hat! There's only 18 years left to go!

Long-term strategic prosperity planning, baby. That's what I'm talking about. Short-term non-strategic investors will be hatless. Do not be one of them!


TJandTheBear said...

MUST be a top when the loonies like this start coming out.

Stagflationary Mark said...


Book was published in 1999! So in hindsight, yes it was a top. ;)

mab said...

30 year at 2.99%. Will the line hold?

fried said...

Got a hat for the bond market? Seems to be a little hatless at the moment. I am sure it will all be fine, and then, onward and upward.

Anonymous said...

I dunno, maybe this explains something:

"The price commanded by labor for a unit of output increased in the first quarter, making a new post-recession high"

posted yesterday


Stagflationary Mark said...


I saw 3% momentarily breached. The battle continues.

Stagflationary Mark said...


The bond market don't need no stinkin' hat.

No matter how high rates go, they can always double. No matter how low rates go, they can always be cut in half.

Behold the Mask of Infinity! ;)

Stagflationary Mark said...


For what it is worth, I'm not seeing much labor cost pressure in that chart. Looks like more of the same to me, volatility (noise) notwithstanding.

The recent rise in oil probably did more to spook the bond market, especially if the Fed keeps postponing the first hike.

Hikes are meant to control inflation. Those holding long-term nominal bonds to maturity should root for them.

Anonymous said...

Thank you S.Mark for your good observations.

Elsewhere yesterday I saw hints of labor shortages in certain construction, but busy day job precluded remembering the link, much less posting it.

Bonds were new to me in 1999 when I first told the wife I had to start learning about them because it was going to be a major asset in the portfolio.

Being strictly retail with limited time my bond holdings are mutual funds. The paucity of Bid & Ask, compared to the stock market, daunted me, but also offers some compelling opportunities ... I was strangely attracted.

Point is, with individual bond holdings your "hold to maturity" observation is right on the money. With fixed income mutual funds, not so much.


Stagflationary Mark said...


Early 2000 was the first time I became interested in bonds, for reasons similar to yours I suspect.

Nobody in the financial world is financially motivated to teach people how to buy government bonds directly from the government. It is something I had to teach myself. If you haven't done so already, I suggest going to the "treasury direct" website and start reading. There's something very satisfying about going directly to the source and bypassing Wall Street and its not so transparent bond fees.

I suspect that there are labor shortages forming in many industries now. One wonders if even that can generate all that much inflation though, in a world that's becoming more and more automated and in a world where blogging "journalism" is mostly free.

One problem over the long-term is that many service jobs are discretionary. When times get tough, many service jobs are optional. Fortunately, most people are not nearly as frugal as me. I've lived in my house for 18 years. I can count the number of times I've paid to have a pizza delivered on one hand, perhaps even one finger.

This service economy does not want people like me in it. That's especially true of financial services. I can't think of a bigger waste of money than paying for financial investment advice. It ranks right up there with paying astrologers and psychics in my opinion. Actually, it is worse. Financial advisors almost always say the same thing, similar to what a broken clock can offer. Stocks always best place to be... can't time it... diversify... dollar cost average... blah, blah, blah.

I've been given a few opportilunities for financial investment advice in my life. The last time was at my bank. The "free" advice pointed me to an inflation protected bond fund with enormously high fees in the fine print (north of 1.5% per year). Hey, guy had to earn a living I guess. I opted to pass. I will say this though. The presentation was slick. Literally. The fund was presented on the glossiest of high quality paper, along with many other funds on similar paper. All of this in its own binder, just for me. It was the ultimate cheesy value trap and I was apparently supposed to be the rat, lol. Sigh.