The following chart shows the real growth of our GDP. I have included a long-term exponential trend line in red. We fell off of it. In my opinion there is no going back.
The following chart shows the amount we are above or below that exponential red trend line.
See that missing $3 trillion? That's per year. Other than Jeremy Siegel, how can anyone possibly think we'll be getting that back?
This last chart shows the amount we are above or below that exponential trend line expressed as a percentage. I have included a 10-year moving average. We've been sliding into lower real GDP growth rates for decades.
Here's a bonus reason to be concerned.
U.S. Census Bureau: Population Profile of the United States
The decrease in the rate of growth is predominantly due to the aging of the population and, consequently, a dramatic increase in the number of deaths. From 2030 to 2050, the United States would grow more slowly than ever before in its history.
BEA: National Economic Accounts
Fed's Vice Chair Fischer: “When the case is overwhelming, if you wait that long, then you’ve waited too long.” - Note: Tomorrow, Saturday, at 12:25 PM ET, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer will speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium on "*U.S. Inflation Developments*" A c...
6 hours ago