Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Real Disposable Personal Income Per Capita

February 02, 2011
Econbrowser: An improving economic outlook

Earlier in the decade consumption spending was sustained by home equity withdrawals and very low saving rates. Trying to work out from under those debt burdens has been a key factor holding us back over the last three years. My hope had been that, with disposable personal income back to growing on track, we could see parallel growth in consumption spending while maintaining a decent saving rate.

Hope may not be warranted at this point.

Let's adjust the chart he offered for population growth and plot it over a longer time frame. We'll also add a long-term exponential trend line so we know what being "on track" actually means.




Here's a closeup of the last 3 years.



Real disposable personal income growth is currently not back on track. I can pretty much assure you of that.

Source Data:

St. Louis Fed: Real Disposable Personal Income
St. Louis Fed: Population

11 comments:

watchtower said...

Mark, here is the link I was wanting you to check out, I think it might have something to do with this post and the last post you wrote:

http://tinyurl.com/4a8qwwo

Keep in mind that I said the guy may be 'out there' a bit.

getyourselfconnected said...

After averaging 13% plus income growth from 1998-2006, it has settled in at about 3%. I do work at a huge firm now and thats part of it, but geez how to get ahead?

Stagflationary Mark said...

Watchtower,

I'm not sure what to make of that. Here's my first reaction though.

He's certainly a fan of paragraphs!

Stagflationary Mark said...

GYSC,

...how to get ahead?

Beetlejuice - Shrunken Head Guy

Sorry. Couldn't resist. ;)

getyourselfconnected said...

Looks like I am next!

Love that film.

I put up the snowbound pictures of my inundated home if you want to get a look, just unreal.

Stagflationary Mark said...

GYSC,

You need to think like a movie star!

I watched Whiteout last night. I'm amazed how little protective clothing people in Antarctica apparently need, lol.

Movie 'Whiteout' Gets Antarctic Science Right

It did?

Note the picture of Kate Beckinsale. Look closely at her face. You can actually see it!

I believe the warmest outdoor temperature mentioned in the movie was -55 degrees Celsius (-67 degrees Fahrenheit).

As a former snowboarder, there's no chance I'd be leaving my face exposed to the weather if it was that cold! I've got this thing called a nose that I'd like to keep.

At What Temperature Can Frostbite Occur?

Prolonged exposure to temperatures at, or below, 32 degrees F can cause frostbite.

100 degrees colder than that would definitely qualify, lol.

In all fairness, she did get frostbite on her fingers when she lost a glove and touched metal. Her nose survived just fine though. No protection needed for movie star faces. ;)

Antarctic Feelings

On the summit of Mt. Erebus, I encountered -20 C (-4 F) temperatures and 20 mph (30 kph) winds. Under these conditions, the wind chill is so severe that when Noel took off his face mask for just a few minutes to operate the video camera, a white spot of frostbite appeared on his nose. He quickly covered up his face and suffered no lasting effects.

Wimps! Kate Beckinsale somehow protected her nose in nearly hurricane force winds at -60 degrees Celsius (-76 degrees Fahrenheit)! Hahaha!

I had high hopes for the movie. I like Kate Beckinsale and Tom Skerritt. It was a dud though.

getyourselfconnected said...

I had a wild picture of Mt Erebus from satellite up a while ago that you can see the molten lava in the crater at the top, too cool!

getyourselfconnected said...

Here is the pic:
http://tinyurl.com/6fpoc6g

Stagflationary Mark said...

GYSC,

That is cool. It looks like something you'd see on Io.

Jazzbumpa said...

Mark -

You got me thinking.

Here's my take, with some context.

Cheers!
JzB

Stagflationary Mark said...

Jazzbumpa,

That's an interesting take on the 1973 breakpoint.

I'm a big fan of plotting exponential growth on a log chart. I've done that quite a bit on my blog as well.

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