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I think the charts pretty much speak for themselves.
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: All Employees: Total nonfarm
Friday: No Major Economic Releases
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[image: Mortgage Rates] Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com
and are for top tier scenarios.
Friday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, *University of Michig...
10 hours ago
8 comments:
We joke, but we're going to need to find those 40M jobs if CBO's real GDP projection for 2030 -- $24T -- is going to happen.
+$9T/+40M = $225,000 per new super-worker.
And that $24T is just 2.5% pa growth from here. Easy-peasy.
Or, failing to find new bodies, we can expect per-worker GDP to rise from $120k to $180k by 2030 to get us to that $24T/yr of new wealth creation.
This is why I like Japan. At least their population is going to naturally collapse along with the global economy.
Us, we've got to swim upstream, go against the wind, and chase the dragon with that.
Troy,
+$9T/+40M = $225,000 per new super-worker.
Universal Soldier
Luc and Scott were killed in Vietnam, but the army has a secret project for reanimating dead people as near-perfect soldiers.
Just a thought. Gallows humor.
This was quite a day. Weak jobs report, falling stocks, falling yields, and rising gold. My general macro thesis, which was wobbling a few months ago, is intact.
That means I can pretend that I have some idea what is going on at the macro level -- for a little longer.
It is hard to stomach TV news when they try to report on the economy. I saw Diane Sawyer get quotes from their 10 baffled economists on ABC news and it was disheartening. Every one of them either complicit in the trickle up fraud of current economic policy or with shady 80 IQs. Or both.
Let's all enjoy our illusions while we can.
Mr Slippery,
Every one of them either complicit in the trickle up fraud of current economic policy or with shady 80 IQs. Or both.
Groupthink
1. High group cohesiveness
2. Structural faults:
* insulation of the group
* lack of impartial leadership
* lack of norms requiring methodological procedures
* homogeneity of members' social backgrounds and ideology
3. Situational context:
* highly stressful external threats
* recent failures
* excessive difficulties on the decision-making task
* moral dilemmas
Just a thought. I also have an alternative theory.
"Groupon Think" ;)
The conventional wisdom is that the "financial crisis" was some exogenous event, like an earthquake, that crippled the economy.
While in reality is was just the system stalling due to running out of gas (falling monetary velocity within the consumer economy).
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=7EJ
blue line consumer debt take-on / wages, red line federal debt take-on / wages.
Lowering the deficit any more from here will just bring back the Bad Times.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V
In the MRQ GRPN had $31M in net income and $34.5M in tax expense. Ouch.
Market cap of $6.2B.
Sell sell sell, but they had good timing on the IPO at least. Just got in the window.
Troy,
The conventional wisdom is that the "financial crisis" was some exogenous event, like an earthquake, that crippled the economy.
Not only do I believe you with every fiber of my being, I also think it is happening again.
Recession Momentum (Musical Tribute)
If one must panic when momentum runs out, then at least panic first. ;)
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