Saturday, March 21, 2015

The Crock of @#$% Report v.001

March 13, 2015
China’s New Normal Means More Jobs in U.S., Good News for Yellen

The bottom line for the U.S. and global economies, according to Roach: China is shifting from a country propelled by demand from the rest of the world to one with a more balanced economy and greater appetite for imports.

“They’re going to be a source of growth for us,” Zandi said. “They’re not going to be an impediment.”

The following chart shows the annual percentage growth in the exports of goods from the U.S. to mainland China.

Click to enlarge.

1. Greater appetite for U.S. imports?
2. A source of growth for us?
3. It's all a crock of @#$%?

You make the call.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart


Rob Dawg said...

Chicomms have no intention of meeting internal demand any way except internally.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Rob Dawg,

Please forgive me for making a potentially ludicrous assumption, but I'm putting you down as picking #3, the "crock of @#$%" option. ;)

Rob Dawg said...

No! You take my vote, invest in the best interests of the Chicomms and then close the voting.

Troy said...

Chinese economy expanding to US-quality is an interesting prospect.

Even a 1% demand pull from the US is 13M consumers -- a lot of business, just ask Apple.

"China continues to be an important market for Apple, accounting for $16.1 billion of the company's $74.6 billion total revenue for the first 2015 fiscal quarter."

Coming from such an abject state of underdevelopment when Deng took the reins, these past 30 years has seen china move from ca 1900 quality of life to I guess an equivalent to our 1960s.

This seems about right -- 2 years worth of development each year, so they'll make the gap to our 2015 standard of living in 25 years.

Thanks to 1 child policy their population is topping out now, so at least they can focus on improving what they have instead of having to make greenfield investments and expansions.

Now, India is a screwed up economy . . .

Stagflationary Mark said...

Rob Dawg,

I have invested your vote in a theme park called Lucky China World Splash 'N' Bake.

Can't lose. Sure thing. It has a little something for everyone.

Stagflationary Mark said...


"This seems about right -- 2 years worth of development each year, so they'll make the gap to our 2015 standard of living in 25 years."

It will be even more interesting to see where the median US household's standard of living will be in 25 years. I sure hope the last twenty years is not an indicator of what to expect. Sigh.

Anonymous said...

My guess would be that military spending talks priority
for China over developing a consumer driven economy.

Stagflationary Mark said...


Must they choose?

Soviet aircraft carrier Kiev

In 1996 Kiev was sold to Binhai Aircraft Park, a theme park in the Tianjin, China. The concept was developed by world tourism and attraction consultant Leisure Quest International.

In August 2011, the ex-Kiev was developed into a luxury hotel after renovations costing £9.6 million.

mab said...

Re: Real Medium Household Income

It's an over-rated stat imo. It largely ignores the "purchasing power" from increasing household debt. Seriously, who needs income growth when they can just borrow their way to prosperity!!!

Also. The transition from single income households to double income households likely resulted in real household income gains during the 80s and 90s. That tail wind seems to have stalled. No worries. Time to put the kids to work. They can compete with the illegal immigrants for all the jobs Americans are unwilling to do!!!! Nothing says prosperity like a well educated Barista!

The future is so bright we need the likes of CNBC to remind us 24/7.

mab said...

"Medium" Household Income. Oh dear! 220, 221, whatever it takes!

Stagflationary Mark said...


Mr. Mom! Hahaha! Love that movie!

Medium was probably just a Freudian Slip. Many things go into Medium household income: astrology, seances, ouija boards, CNBC, and so on. ;)

No worries about household income here. I have a backup plan to boost it. Only takes a single ten dollar bill.

I pay my girlfriend $10 to watch CNBC and then she pays me $10 to watch it with her. That's $20 in additional household income right there!! Repeat as necessary!! Cha-ching!

Now I just need to solve the problem of escalating household expenses. Perhaps we can outsource the work to China. No big deal though. They'd just be doing the work that Americans don't really want to do. I can't speak for others, but more than 10 seconds of Mad Money per day does seem like a job.

mab said...

I pay my girlfriend $10 to watch CNBC and then she pays me $10 to watch it with her. That's $20 in additional household income right there!! Repeat as necessary!! Cha-ching!

Great idea. That's exactly the type of productive spending this economy needs to keep GDP growing. Keep an eye on the velocity of that transaction though. Some forget that the velocity of money creates inflation.

All things in moderation. Except sarcasm! And asset inflation. And prosperity. And spreading freedom & democracy. And Mad money - one can never get enough of that.

Stagflationary Mark said...



Funny you should mention the velocity of money because I was thinking of doing a viscosity of money post. I think we may need more bank solvent to dissolve what's holding it up. Bank solvency makes everything better.

And when I say holding it up, I don't mean holding up the banks to get the money. That's just wrong. I mean the holding up the money to get the banks solvent.

Pethaps we can grease some politician pockets to get the solvent into the right hands.

And when I say right hands, I'm not talking ultra right free market no regulation hands. Pretty sure you need to regulate the flow of solvent, but perhaps that's what governors are for.

And when I say governor, I don't mean politicians. I mean the kind of regulator that might protect a vehicle's engine by limiting its top speed.

And when I say speed, I don't mean velocity. Velocity technically requires both a magnitue and a direction. Now I know that we're moving but I am not at all clear on the direction.

Why are we in this hand basket?

Rob Dawg said...

> Why are we in this hand basket?

Because the road hasn't been paved since the Reagan Administration.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Plot holes ruin my suspension of disbelief, but potholes just ruin my suspension.