Tuesday, March 17, 2015

The Winter 'Pocalypse (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows the number of new private single family housing units authorized by building permits.

Click to enlarge.

March 17, 2015
Housing Starts Plunge by the Most in Four Years

It was just the weather, basically,” said Richard Moody, chief economist at Regions Financial Corp. in Birmingham, Alabama. Still, “my view of the recovery in single-family housing is that it’s coming more gradually than others think.”

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart


dearieme said...

Hurray! An ET failure.

Perhaps you should start a Euphemism Watch. Today's candidate is pretty good:
“my view of the recovery in *** is that it’s coming more gradually than others think.”

dd said...

Not to worry the recovery is swaps is astronomical or some may say exponential. Chicago headlines are full of the looming pension payments due (about 600M). Well one downgrade and there's a 400M swap payment due (buried in a bond blog; no headlines). Just imagine what a couple more downgrades will do? Who needs a housing market when TBTF will own the entire city?
Who needs a bond market when there's swaps for the win!

Stagflationary Mark said...


Euphemism Watch! I love it!

One thing we should look for is a central banker who claims that the global economy is either at peace or shall soon be going to a better place, lol. Sigh.

Mr Slippery said...

Calculated Risk comment on housing starts:

"Note the exceptionally low level of single family starts and completions. The "wide bottom" was what I was forecasting several years ago, and now I expect several years of increasing single family starts and completions.

I remember CR crowing about housing growing 25% right after the bottom and how it was going to be strong. Now, he is saying he predicted a wide bottom, and now it will will increase. Looking at his own chart for single family homes, it is very weak dead cat bounce, and it is decelerating. It might increase a little before rolling over.

Of course, it could get a strong bounce if there is some kind of world war level catastrophe that destroys the over supply. CR wins the clown horn of the week award for overoptimism on housing.

Stagflationary Mark said...


Not to worry! I will personally guarantee all of Chicago's pension obligations for a one time fee of $20,000,000.

However, my identity must remain anonymous and my location must remain secret. Should payments need to be made by me in the event of a pension mishap (euphemism for pension #%^* hitting the fan), simply light the Sacred Torch of Pension Restoration (which I will provide) and wait patiently for the cash to start arriving in the mail.

In the unlikely event that the cash dies not arrive in a timely manner, I will also offer VIP service for just $1,000,000 more. This would mean that I will personally look into the reasons for any delays. But that's not all. Act within the next 24 hours and I will upgrade to premium VIP service, which allows access to a special 1-800 complaint number that may be linked directly to my personal voice mail.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Mr Slippery,

Perhaps "wide bottom" is a euphemism fior the current living conditions of some former homeowners.

Is that a wide bottom? No, sir. I've hit bottom and now live in a double wide, down by the river.

Are you flooded with optimism? No, sir. I'm flooded with water. Turns out my double wide was located in the flood plain.

Surely the future is so bright you gotta wear shades? No, sir. My shades were last seen flioating downstream.

Your shades float? No, sir. But my double wide still does and my shades were in them.

Gallows humor. :(

Rob Dawg said...

Have you noticed the bifurcation in the blog sites you link on the side bar? The swirl of events is pushing them to sycophants and tinfoilers and the middle grounders get sucked into the the vortex. Greetings from the vortex.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Rob Dawg,

Yes, I have noticed it. I am definitely in the vortex with you, lol. Sigh.

I feel like a traitor to most parties by embracing long bonds (TIPS), avoiding gold/silver, avoiding stocks, and all while heckling the Fed and anyone else in power.

Don't believe the world will end tomorrow (pessimism) nor do I believe we live in the best of all possible worlds (optimism).

Rob Dawg said...

Gold/silver will ndoybtably (new word) pay of some day and most likely it will be a "day" and as such is either insurance or more properly a lottery ticket. Either case paying off is not a benefit to the economy.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Rob Dawg,

For gold/silver to pay off big it has to be a "day" of financial apocalypse but not a "day" of actual apocalypse.

6.99 billion zombies: bad for gold/silver

6.99 billion blown derivatives contracts: good for gold/silver

Both simultaneously: bad for gold/silver

Just a hunch. :)

Rob Dawg said...

Always looking for the gum under the table eh?

Stagflationary Mark said...

Rob Dawg,

The gumernment does almost everything under the table!!