Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Coincident Economic Activity

Click to enlarge.

The permabulls anxiously await a rebound in economic activity.

The permabears nervously await a rebound in economic activity.

State Coincident Indexes

The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.

Disclosure: As of 2004, I'm a permabear.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Coincident Economic Activity Index


Stagflationary Mark said...

For what it is worth, I believe the next rebound will be to the downside.

Just an opinion!

Who Struck John said...

Funny, Mark, I had the same thought.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Who Struck John,

The economy has never been more interesting.

May you live in interesting times

While purporting to be a blessing, this is in fact a curse. The expression is always used ironically, with the clear implication that 'uninteresting times', of peace and tranquillity, are more life-enhancing than interesting ones.