Thursday, October 25, 2012

Extreme Initial Claims Danger v.20


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The red trend line continues to drift away.




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Speaking of Kahn, the previous week's initial claims were revised up yet again. That's 67 upward revisions in a row. I'm not arguing that this is all part of a grand conspiracy, but at some point you've got to think the DOL's estimation model could use a reality adjustment. Just sayin'.

Update:

At some point along the way I lost track of the count. It is actually 69 straight revisions. I am updating previous posts to reflect this.

The error crept about a month ago. I generally go to the previous week's data and add one. I must have looked at the wrong week. In any event, that's 4 "my personal blunders" labels. I must be an optimist. I think it could have been worse, lol. ;)

See Also:
Initial Claims Danger v.19

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Initial Claims
DOL: Initial Claims

8 comments:

Mr Slippery said...

at some point you've got to think the DOL's estimation model could use a reality adjustment.

It appears to me that the model is confirming to the requirements of the DoL. If it wasn't, they would have changed it by now. Whether that is a grand, petite, or no conspiracy is debatable.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Mr Slippery,

In my opinion...

The model probably worked well until it didn't. I wonder what's changed about the new economy? Other than a plethora of exponential trend failures, my mind draws a blank, lol. Sigh.

Craig M. Brandenburg said...

At some point along the way I lost track of the count. It is actually 69 straight revisions. I am updating previous posts to reflect this.

"Revising up" just went meta!

TJandTheBear said...

You were sick that week. ;-)

Stagflationary Mark said...

Craig M. Brandenburg,

The irony is not lost on me, lol.

Stagflationary Mark said...

TJandTheBear,

I'm certainly sick this week. I'm on my third bottle of NyQuil. Sigh.

Scott said...

Speaking of revisions, does anyone know of a blog/site that tracks GDP revisions? For example, the trend in revisions between the advance estimate and the final number. It would be interesting to see if there were any pattern there.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Scott,

That would be interesting.