Thursday, October 18, 2012

New Hires Minus Initial Claims

Click to enlarge.

I'm not even going to remotely suggest that I can accurately predict the future with 2nd order polynomials. However, it does allow me to pose a serious question.

Feeling lucky?

See Also:
Recession Prediction: The Supporting Evidence
Trend Line Disclaimer

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart


Scott said...

Great chart; highlights inflection points in an easy to understand way.

TJandTheBear said...

Funny how those inflection points occur at times of drastic Fed action.

Co-ink-i-dink? :-)

Stagflationary Mark said...

Temporary stimulus can push a stuck car out of a snowbank or hit a ball temporarily up into the air.

Unfortunately, our economy is behaving like the latter over the last decade and I expect it to continue. Sigh.

Scott said...

I ran a search on the terms "exponential trend failure" over at the RePec database (Research Papers in Economics) and came up with no relevant results. Mark, you could package up all of your analysis into a paper and it would be legitimately be a novel analysis.

Scott said...

I also ran a search in Google Books for the terms (exponential "trend failure" economics) and the only thing that came up was your blog. You are on to something.

Stagflationary Mark said...


I'm experiencing deja vu.

June 3, 2010
Cumulative Trade Deficit Nightmares

Why is it that we are always told what the trade deficit is but we have to go digging to find out what the cumulative trade deficit is?

Think if credit cards worked that way. Each month you are sent a bill. The only thing on it is your minimum payment information. There's no balance information on it at all. Can you imagine?

I'm being serious here. There's a deficit in cumulative trade deficit discussions and I can prove it. I went looking for more information on it today and it took me right to my own blog! Do I look like some sort of expert on the topic?