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Yowza!
Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 25.9% YoY
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*What this means:* On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the
year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly
basis, they report t...
3 hours ago
18 comments:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?graph_id=93071&category_id=0
Money in circulation grownig 3x inflation adjusted for number of adults.
Hey Rob Dawg!
We certainly live in an interesting world, don't we?
It's full of wonder and suprises, lol. Sigh.
As a side note, I'm permanently bearish since 2004. Good times, good times.
Hey can I post this on credit bubble? Thx
I'm still looking forward for an overshoot past the median.
CP,
Sure thing!
Bill at CR is totally off base. Household formation and rebuilds are not going to support anything close to 1.2/yr. I think 800-900k is more than enough.
TJandTheBear,
We can actually get this chart to go below zero if civilian employment actually declines over an entire decade.
How's that for gloomy?
Rob Dawg,
I'm with you on this. I think he did a good job using cyclical arguments to spot the housing bubble and the recovery in the stock market.
Those who used structural arguments also spotted the housing bubble though.
I actually think our problems are now much worse than when I first turned bearish in 2004.
Bill is still trying to force the structural shift into a cyclical model. That only goes so far.
Probably time to start up my blog again.
Well past time for that, Dawg!
ZH has an article about a hedge fund exiting the buy-to-rent market. Interesting...
"ZH has an article about a hedge fund exiting the buy-to-rent market. Interesting... "
Josap mentioned something similar. You may remember that very aspect was why I said own to rent out made sense this year but may not make sense in 2013. I expect a war of undercutting and deeper pockets in the rental markets which will certainly stall any house price increases.
Rob Dawg,
Probably time to start up my blog again.
I have enjoyed your blog (and your comments at CR when I stop by).
You are a must read on my blog list. And yes, I saw those Devil Chemtrails.
I would also add that cyclical arguments cannot explain why the real yield of the 30-year TIPS is less than 0.5%.
Well, I suppose they could if you use 30 year cyclical arguments, lol. Sigh.
Then there is Jeremy Siegel. He's a hoot, that one. He uses structural arguments too but only the ones based on 200+ years of never ending American prosperity. Good luck on that one!
One more thought.
I will never claim that 30 year TIPS are safe.
I will claim that if I go down I'll be taking a heck of a lot of investors with me though.
It is our debt that's propping everything else up.
So, it's good to be a lemming? ;-)
TJandTheBear,
Hahaha!
I fully intend to be one of the last lemmings off the cliff.
I also have this going for me. Should my investments start do do poorly (and there is therefore added risk that I will outlive my nest egg), then...
It will be offset by the added stress reducing my lifespan!
Win win!
Gallows humor, lol. Sigh.
And let's not forget that no matter how bad things get, I should have plenty of real toilet paper. I might be the richest person on my block in the aftermath!
More gallows humor, lol. Sigh.
http://sidoxia.files.wordpress.com/2009/08/lemmings.jpg
I see you!
Rob Dawg,
That Far Side picture really got me to laugh out loud for real, lol.
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