Tuesday, October 30, 2012

The Cherry Picking Balls Award for 2012

Some people just don't know when to give up. First he picked on my beloved potatoes and now he's going after my beloved chicken. It's getting personal! Hahaha!

October 26, 2012
This Week's Potato News

I'm pointing this out for those who still think that the typical American consumer is paying $1.30 to buy a pound of potatoes and that potato prices are up 306% since 2008.

The professor no longer claims that potato prices are up 306% since 2008. We've made some progress on that front, lol. Forehead. Desk. Whack. Whack. Whack.

However, he still claims the following.

But what HAVE seen is that food and gasoline prices have skyrocketed since December 2008, particularly relative to the Consumer Price Index less food & energy.

He's decided to go after meats, poultry, fish, and eggs prices. Did he stick with the December 2008 cherry picked starting date from his original post? No. That date no longer worked for his new charts. He's decided to cherry pick a whole new starting date instead. This time it is the middle of 2010. Want to know why the middle of 2010 is so important? I think it is fairly clear when you see the the complete chart going all the way back to December of 2008.


Click to enlarge.

Oh, look. He's conveniently ignored the deflationary food price data from early 2009 to early 2010. Ignoring that data allows him to make the following claim in the comments of his post as if it is gospel.

No potato data, but food still rose 3x faster than “inflation” and gasoline has grown incredibly.

Here is the data that we're both using. Here is a link to the chart above.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs was 208.966 in December of 2008.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs was 230.690 in September of 2012.

That's a 10.4% increase over 3.75 years. The average increase per year was therefore a relatively tame 2.7% (1.104^(1/3.75) = 1.027). It's a bit higher than overall inflation but hardly enough to claim that these foods have "skyrocketed" since December of 2008. The data clearly shows they did not.

I can say from personal experience that I have seen meat prices increase a bit faster than overall inflation over the years but it has been somewhat offset by extremely stable poultry prices. It's been a very long time since I've seen boneless skinless chicken prices rise at Costco. What can I say? I love chicken almost as much as I love potatoes. I tend to notice these things.

The professor better stick to foods that I don't love if he wishes to keep twisting the data undetected. Do NOT pick spaghetti. I can still get it for $1 per pound on sale. I suggest asparagus. I have virtually no knowledge on it! ;)

And lastly, there actually is potato data if the professor cares to look. It can be found within the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI database. I really don't think it supports his case though.

The consumer price index for potatoes was 353.564 in December of 2008.

The consumer price index for potatoes was 301.302 in September of 2012.

That's a 15% drop in price. This is in sharp contrast to the professor's original claim of a 306% price increase over the period. As I type this, Safeway is still offering 5 pounds of Russett potatoes for $1. No joke.

As I have previously stated, potato prices have generally risen faster than inflation overall. One exception is the very time period that the professor claims they skyrocketed. Go frickin' figure.

It could have been an honest mistake and one that could have been fixed, but this new shift to the middle of 2010 to support a claim going back to December of 2008 takes a serious amount of cherry picking balls. Kudos to you Professor Anthony B. Sanders of George Mason University. You definitely deserve a food-based award.

13 comments:

Jazzbumpa said...

Well played, sir!

Plus, you have a proven history of grocery shopping.

Cheers!
JzB

Stagflationary Mark said...

Jazzbumpa,

In his defense, I'm not actually locked away within an ivory tower so it is therefore easier for me to get to an actual grocery store, lol.

Ba dum tssshhh

Jazzbumpa said...

A Koch funded ivory tower.

Credit where it's due.

I made another attempt - more for my own amusement than in expectation of a reasonable response.

I'm perverse that way.

Cheers!
JzB

Stagflationary Mark said...

Jazzbumpa,

From the comments...

I delete rude responses, particularly political barbs. - Professor Anthony B. Sanders of George Mason University, October 30, 2012

Got it. Rude responses and political barbs will not be tolerated.

And I agree that the Obama Administration couldn’t care less about unemployment. They spent the first two years with a super majority in Congress ramming Obamacare down our throats. - Professor Anthony B. Sanders of George Mason University, October 30, 2012

I'd like to test the theory here. Is it acceptable to mention Romney and the ramming of body orifices? I'm not saying we should. I'm simply trying to determine the threshold for a rude response or a political barb, lol.

Scott said...

You've got an arch-enemy now. Congrats! ;)

Troy said...

George Mason is a hotbed of right-wing economics and hus BS, as his later utterly incorrect comment about Obama having a supermajority attests.

These people damaged my country 1995 - 2006 and they're coming around for another pass.

I try a bit to keep my politics off your comments but these people scare me to my core.

There is no limit to the damage they and their various idiocies can effect this decade and next.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Scott,

Professor Deceptichart vs. Sarcastic Guy

Yes!

He's going to be in for a world of eye roll pain and slow clap enthusiasm. No doubt about it. ;)

Stagflationary Mark said...

Troy,

I try a bit to keep my politics off your comments but these people scare me to my core.

I too try to keep politics (and religion) to a minimum on my blog. Everyone is entitled to an opinion and these opinions can tend to offend those with differing opinions.

That said, I really don't think a 306% potato price increase since December of 2008 is an honest opinion. It's got too many digits of numerical precision to be one. I also really don't think it is an actual fact.

So what should we do with something that is not an honest opinion or an actual fact? I say sarcasm the heck out of it! ;)

Stagflationary Mark said...

The professor has deleted his post.

As far as I am concerned, this topic is officially closed.

nanute said...

What do you mean this topic is officially closed? I merely suggested he delete his comment laced with political barbs. When I pointed out that he'd been given an award, and suggested he check out the critique; the whole post disappeared. Furthermore, Jazzbumpa has a post at his place this morning that I think deserves so sort of an award. Any suggestions? Fish in a Barrel is the most obvious, though I'd like to see something with balls in it.

Stagflationary Mark said...

nanute,

Any suggestions? Fish in a Barrel is the most obvious, though I'd like to see something with balls in it.

For what it is worth, I'm picturing a wooden trophy.

Nutcracker

Nutcrackers in the form of wooden carvings of a soldier, knight, king, or other profession have existed since at least the 15th century.

nanute said...

The nutcracker. Suite! Have you seen this ad: http://bit.ly/UeOY3Z
There's something in here about a nut sack.

Stagflationary Mark said...

LOL!