Monday, October 29, 2012

Trend Failure Math of the Day

Start with this.

Click to enlarge.

Add this.

October 5, 2012
40.7 Million Missing Jobs

Click to enlarge.

You end up with this.

Click to enlarge.

As of 2004, I am a permabear. Sigh.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Real Total Credit Market Debt Owed per Capita
St. Louis Fed: Real Wage and Salary Disbursements per Capita


Stagflationary Mark said...

I strongly believe that none of these charts will ever resume their former trends.

Mr Slippery said...

People just need to spend 10 minutes to get their free personalized retirement plan.

This investing stuff must be easy if you can get a perfect plan in 10 minutes.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Mr Slippery,


Don't miss out on $499 of free stuff!

Sign up for a FREE* Investing Foundation workshop.

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I suspect that it involves a lubricant of some sort.

Shame on me for going there, lol.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Um, I meant, well, to make the process go smoother of course. You know. I'm not trying to imply that it involves a colonoscopy or anything.

Good grief. I went there again. ;)

dearieme said...

Talking of permabearmanship, I happened to enquire on several US blogs a few months ago whether big hurricanes ever strike NYC. People didn't seem remotely interested.

Jazzbumpa said...

Mark -

Why 231.414?


Stagflationary Mark said...



I love that term! Hahaha!

Stagflationary Mark said...


That's the CPI's value as of September 2012 (to convert the result to September 2012 dollars).

Anonymous said...

Divide the measure in your first graph by real per capita gdp ( also in 2012 dollars ) and you'll see a beautiful example of "regime change".

Stagflationary Mark said...


It simplifies to Total Credit Market Debt Owed / GDP.

All exponential trends eventually fail.

The failure isn't pleasant and will more than likely never unfail.

That might eventually be good news of course. Unfortunately, those planning on a booming economy thanks to ever increasing levels of debt might want to rethink their mid-term plans.