EE Savings Bond Prediction for November 1, 2012

Based on today's 1.83% 10-year treasury yield, the belief that we are still in crisis mode, and the assumption that yields won't change much between now and November 1st, I am predicting a fixed rate of 0.4%.

The following chart shows my reasoning.


Click to enlarge.

I also expect the original term to be increased at some point. EE Savings Bonds yield 3.53% if held 20 years (since they are currently guaranteed to double in 20 years). This is far more than the current 2.60% yield on the 20-year Treasury.

As it stands now, EE Savings Bonds are an extreme bargain compared to the 20-year Treasury. I can't say they will be an extreme bargain compared to hoarded toilet paper though. We won't know for 20 years. I prefer I-Bonds, but will also be a reluctant buyer of EE Bonds in January (again) if the original term is not modified. We'll know on November 1st.

This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
Treasury Direct: EE/E Bonds Rates & Terms
US Treasury: Daily Yield Curve