Based on today's 1.83% 10-year treasury yield, the belief that we are still in crisis mode, and the assumption that yields won't change much between now and November 1st, I am predicting a fixed rate of 0.4%.
The following chart shows my reasoning.
Click to enlarge.
I also expect the original term to be increased at some point. EE Savings Bonds yield 3.53% if held 20 years (since they are currently guaranteed to double in 20 years). This is far more than the current 2.60% yield on the 20-year Treasury.
As it stands now, EE Savings Bonds are an extreme bargain compared to the 20-year Treasury. I can't say they will be an extreme bargain compared to hoarded toilet paper though. We won't know for 20 years. I prefer I-Bonds, but will also be a reluctant buyer of EE Bonds in January (again) if the original term is not modified. We'll know on November 1st.
This is not investment advice.
Treasury Direct: EE/E Bonds Rates & Terms
US Treasury: Daily Yield Curve
State and Local Governments: Contributions to GDP and Employment - Two and half years ago I argued that "most of the drag from state and local governments would be over by mid-year 2012. Just eliminating the drag from stat...
3 hours ago