Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Exponential Trend Failure of the Day: Long-Term Nominal Hourly Earnings Growth (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows the average hourly earnings of private production and nonsupervisory employees. I have added an exponential trend in red.

Click to enlarge.

Note the trend failure.

The next chart shows the deviation of the hourly earnings from the long-term trend.

Click to enlarge.

Check out that recovery.

1. We're now more than 5% below the long-term trend.
2. The linear free fall continues.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees: Total Private


mab said...

It's the new and improved normal!

Stagflationary Mark said...



Nermal is a cute grey tabby whom Garfield is jealous of. He revels in his cuteness and proudly proclaims himself as the cutest kitten in the world.

Anonymous said...

Well, luckily nothing can go down forever. When those wages turn up it'll be GREAT for stocks.

I say, buy now or be priced out forever.

Stagflationary Mark said...


I say, buy now or be priced out forever.

Call now and get a second worker absolutely free!*

* Just pay separate processing and handling.