Tuesday, December 23, 2014

When Can We Expect a Complete Housing Recovery?

The following chart shows the 12-month moving total of new one family housing units sold per capita.

Click to enlarge.

Let's zoom in for a closer look.

Click to enlarge.

Due to the exponential trend failure, we can no longer expect a complete housing recovery in 2017. The new estimate is just this side of never.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart


Joseph Constable said...

But new home prices recovered very nicely, thank you.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Joseph Constable,

Who could have known that re-inflating new home prices would lead to struggling new home sales again?


Rob Dawg said...

Tank slapper.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Rob Dawg,

I think they might have dampened the tank a bit on this last pass. Got high median new house price molasses? D'oh!