Click to enlarge.
I should point out that this is not the first trend failure since the end of the Great Recession. It's a volatile series. Previous failures recovered.
That said, if long-term history is any indicator, then someday this trend will fail in a significant way. Should this trend fail spectacularly while we are still stuck in ZIRP, then heaven help us all.
Have we reached the "outer limits" of this downward trend? You tell me and we'll both know.
Should we be encouraged that it is happening right now? As we head into Christmas? Is Santa holding out on us? Are we experiencing RadioShack pain? Has the fall in oil prices trickled over to the "sure thing" oil sector?
For the next hour, sit quietly, and we will control all that you see and hear. You are about to participate in a great adventure. You are about to experience the awe and mystery which reaches from the inner minds to the outer limits.
St. Louis Fed: 4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims