Saturday, December 13, 2014

U.S. Exports of Goods to China

The following chart shows the 12-month moving average of U.S. exports of goods to China.

Click to enlarge.

Well, now. Isn't that one of the ugliest charts ever. Can't you just feel the prosperity being released parabolically? From where I sit, the blue parabola failed to the downside. We used the red parabola to return to it but then overshot it. So here we are dangling above the blue parabola. That's not the key here though. I can sum that up in two sentences.

1. The blue parabola wants to go down from here.
2. The red parabola wants to go down from here.

Ugly. Ugly.

December 12, 2014
Predictions for 2015 (With 80% Confidence)

• Full year exports of goods to China will not increase from 2014 to 2015.

That was my prediction. It will be a good one if we follow either parabola. It is not required though. The data just needs to go sideways.

The exports of goods from the United States to China may be my weakest link. Other than glossing over a very noisy chart and combining that with a gut feel (not seen in the chart), I believe there is a parabola lurking that will work in my favor. I probably should have checked before making the prediction, but I'm not going to change it. What's done is done.

It was a very noisy chart, see the source data below. It did clean up real nice though. It exposed not just one, but two lurking parabolas. Talk about hitting the parabolic jackpot.

I am now 80% confident and no longer feel that this prediction is my weakest link. Can exports go higher? Sure. As a conservative guess, I'd say there's a 20% chance. Funny how that math works.

Keep in mind that this is just a guess. Parabolas fail all the time. Perhaps these fail and ruin my prediction. Then again, failures can go in either direction. Failures may actually enhance my prediction. Go figure.

If predicting the future is so easy, then everyone would be doing it. Okay, nearly everyone predicts the future. The rear view mirror is very tantalizing. I'll give you that.

"If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians." - Warren Buffett

I'm no librarian. That's why I need to find my damn Tarot cards for confirmation! ;)

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: U.S. Exports of Goods to China

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