Monday, December 8, 2014

Parabolic Trend Failure of the Day: The Middle East Cries Uncle (Sam)

The following chart shows the 522-week (~10 years) moving average of crude oil imports.

Click to enlarge.

The parabolic trend in red is failing to the downside. It is currently being pulled towards the blue line (which shows the average daily crude oil imports over the past year).

Never underestimate a weakened US economy combined with a booming North Dakota!

December 8, 2014
Oil drops $2 to five-year low on oversupply

The U.S. shale industry has yet to be hit by the slump in crude prices, Baker Hughes said in a report on Friday, reporting three new U.S. oil-drilling rigs had been added in the last week.

Rising interest rate environment! It's the only way to stop the relentlessly upward trend in oil prices! Oh, wait. Never mind. I think I have that backwards.

In all seriousness, any further attempts at $100+ oil by the Middle East will probably be met by increased oil production in the Middle West. You don't have to be a rocket fuel scientist to figure that out. Well, unless you work at ShadowStats anyway.

Speaking of which, I anxiously await their next imminent hyperinflation special report, just like I do every year. As a saver with deflationary tendencies, they just get more and more amusing!

Subscription fees of $175 per year? Every year? And they take a credit card? That's a ridiculous thing to do during hyperinflation! I don't mean to be preachy, but I feel the need to offer them some free advice.

1. You are providing a service! Crank up those fees to match the inflation you see in our real service economy! Don't get left behind! You can't afford to show weakness as the whole country falls around you!

2a. Credit cards? During hyperinflation? Seriously? That's insane! At the very least, you should be getting paid in canned goods, gold, silver, copper, toilet paper, cattle, ammunition, or dare I say it, imported French sparkling natural mineral water (Perrier)! Just think of the hyperinflationary panic! Create a self-fulfilling prophecy and the paid newsletter world becomes your oyster!

2b. Credit cards? When you know "full well" our country has a serious debt problem? Seriously? What kind of message are you trying to send? That's just got bad public relations written all over it. Did you learn nothing of BP's liability nightmare?

3. Speaking of "full well" and oil, have you ever considered creating an imminent hyperdeflation special report written in Japanese or Swiss Standard German? Go global! Increase your market share! Attract a wider audience! Heck, the Swiss central bank might even buy you out!

Source Data:
EIA: Petroleum & Other Liquids


Mr Slippery said...

From the Hyperinflation Report 2014, chapter 1.

Extraordinary Economic Distress, Financial Crises and Panics Likely Will Dominate 2014.

Well, it's December and I don't think there has been one crisis or panic unless you count the collapse in oil prices.

Low gasoline is not causing me any personal distress at the moment.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Mr Slippery,

With your help, I found the hyperinflation and extraordinary economic distress! It's happening to his subscribers!

ShadowStats Annual Subscription Fee / Price of Gasoline

It's going parabolic! It now takes a whopping 65 gallons of gasoline to pay for the hyperinflation advice! If he doesn't cut his subscription fees soon, all of his readers who hoarded gasoline will soon be financially ruined! ;)

Rob Dawg said...

Want to bet KP would never accept payment for his blog disruption paid services in oil at $85 per barrel?

Luke The Debtor said...


Nigeria has become the first country to completely stop selling oil to the US due to the impact of the shale revolution – an astounding reversal as the African nation was only four years ago one of the top-5 oil suppliers to America.

According to the US Department of Energy, Nigeria did not export a single barrel of crude to US-based refiners in July for the first time since records start in 1973. Preliminary data suggest the trend continued in August and September.

Many OPEC nations do not have to worry about the crude price drop due to their fiscal discipline and diversified economies.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Rob Dawg,

I'm very thankful that the blog disruption services have not spread to my blog yet, lol. Sigh.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Luke the Debtor,

Many OPEC nations do not have to worry about the crude price drop due to their fiscal discipline and diversified economies.

You are inflating the sarcasm bubble! ;)

Needle on Zero: Nigeria's Economy Tanking as U.S. Oil Exports Dry Up

"This energy shift is akin to the collapse of the Soviet Union in its foreign policy implications."

Note to self: Won't need to bribe the border guard to move to Nigeria.