Thursday, June 4, 2015

The Fed's Game Plan

1. Travel the long road to Valencia.
2. Enter the rectum of Magic Mountain.
3. Find the 7th flag.
4. Earn the 10th victory point, and thus, the game.

What could possibly go wrong? ;)


Shookie said...

The only thing left out is a good parabola. There must be one in there somewhere?

Stagflationary Mark said...


Psst... trade you two bad parabolas for one good one. ;)

In all seriousness, nice employment report today. No complaints here!

Joseph Constable said...

With the Q1’15 labor cost index surging and output per hour stalling, it makes sense for employers to hire. Not.

See table A8. The surge in self-employed is not hiring by definition. The surge in government employment IS hiring (but of the bad kind).

The only explanation is that the A survey is bunk. Or, B survey is bunk.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Joseph Constable,

Employers are having to hire because output per hour is stalling. As for the labor cost going up, it would seem that employers are no longer finding as much qualified cheap labor as they once did (at least in the USA).

This all seems consistent to me.

That said, it will not do wonders for corporate profits, nor will rising interest rates if it continues (which I suspect it won't).

Further, I think much of the virtuous cycle theory is based on a junk bond market growing increasingly healthy. It would be an understatement for me to suggest I'm skeptical over the long-term.

I wonder what the self-employed are generally doing right now. I hope many aren't expecting to make a killing creating new free apps for my iPhone. There are only so many ads I can watch in a day, lol. Sigh.

It's funny. Many of the ads in my free to play games are for other free to play games. I suspect investors may be looking back in a few years wondering how that business model was supposed to work.

Just opinions.