Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Pop Quiz: What Is Wrong With This Picture?

Here's an article from 1997.

Nearly 90 Percent of Americans Will Achieve Homeownership (pdf)

Additional research in progress at Freddie Mac is looking at the next round of questions prompted by realistic expectations for high lifetime rates of homeownership, including: Who does not become a homeowner? Why not? Should they? and What are the benefits of encouraging homeownership at earlier points in the life cycle?.

Here's an article from 2009.

FDIC: 1 in 4 US households lacks access to banks

In what could be a dream for banks, about 9 million American households, or 7.7%, have no checking or savings accounts.

A survey by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. this morning also shows that an additional 21 million, or 17.9%, of U.S. households are underbanked -- meaning they have checking accounts but use problematic alternative services such as payday loans or overdraft programs that carry high fees or huge interest rates.


So what exactly is wrong with this picture?

1. 15 points awarded for spotting "realistic expectations".
2. 15 points awarded for spotting "benefits of encouraging homeownership".
3. 15 points awarded for spotting "a dream for banks".
4. 15 points awarded for spotting "high fees".
5. 15 points awarded for spotting "huge interest rates".
6. 15 points awarded for spotting "payday loans".
7. 10 points awarded for offering a formula that includes "90%" and "1 in 4".
8. 5 bonus points awarded if you can get the formula to actually make sense.
9. 5 bonus points awarded for thinking outside the
box.
10. 5 bonus points awarded for thinking outside the box again.

19 comments:

Stagflationary Mark said...

"Bridgewater, BlackRock get Indiana nod for TIPS"

"Indiana Public Employees' Retirement Fund, Indianapolis, hired Bridgewater Associates and BlackRock to manage $350 million each in active Treasury inflation-protected securities, said John Liu, director of public equities at the $13.1 billion fund."

I wonder...

How many firms does it take to manage a light bulb?

Stagflationary Mark said...

Oops. Forgot to offer the link.

http://www.pionline.com/article/20091127/REG/911259982

mab said...

Stag,

Indiana Public Employees' Retirement Fund, Indianapolis, hired Bridgewater Associates and BlackRock to manage $350 million each in active Treasury inflation-protected securities,

Why do they need outside money (mis)managers? Anyone can buy and sell TIPS for no charge directly from the U.S. Treasury.

Blackrock top-ticked the real estate market with CALPERS pension money on the Peter Cooper Village Idiot deal (Stuyvesant Town in New York City). They lost a shed load of cash.

Stagflationary Mark said...

mab,

"Why do they need outside money (mis)managers?"

You probably need someone you can fire if the investments don't work out and the finger pointing begins. One firm is good but two firms are better.

"Mass. pension board fires 2 fund firms"

http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2009/12/02/mass_pension_board_fires_2_fund_firms/

"Two fund managers affiliated with Axa SA were fired by the Massachusetts state pension fund after investment performance trailed benchmarks."

See! Works every time!

EconomicDisconnect said...

Do not get me started about Mass state pension funds, you would not believe the benefits they guarntee and the leverage thery pull on frims should they not get them. Irish Mafia it seems like here.

Stagflationary Mark said...

GYSC,

I won't mention that the UK calls them Pension Schemes instead of Pension Plans then. I also won't mention that a synonym for scheme is conspiracy. I don't want to get you started. ;)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcHKm0cm-jI

mab said...

Irish Mafia it seems like here.

I heard a funny Mass. Irish Mafia style joke the other day.

Q: Guess who's been dead sober for the last three months?

A: Ted Kennedy.

EconomicDisconnect said...

mab,
ouchie!!

Mark,
when I saw the title "Pop Quiz" I kept thinking about those scenes in the film "Speed", I am a film loser for sure.

Stagflationary Mark said...

mab,

Speaking of dead sober...

TIP is down quite a bit today on what looks like high volume. It isn't inflation expectations though since IEF is also down. The real yield brick wall must have snuck up on them.

Meanwhile, Mish shows us that ALL the bears are in hibernation. According to his investor sentiment chart, there are none left.

Somebody must have spiked the Kool-Aid. This may end with a bull market in breathalyzer tests.

Stagflationary Mark said...

GYSC,

Speed is a good word to use when describing our economy! Velocity isn't nearly as good.

We know we're moving fast, we just don't know for sure where we are headed, lol.

Captain: I've got good news and bad news. First, the bad news. Our GPS is out, we're hopelessly lost, haven't seen so much as an island in over an hour, and the plane is very low on fuel. Now, the good news. We're making good time!

Charles Kiting said...

The headlines are pure state-controlled news.

Exactly 0% of the country "lacks access" to banks. But about 25% chooses not to use banks much if at all.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Chales Kiting,

Good point. Some are finding it harder to get all the banking services they desire though.

Mortgage Prospects Dim for Illegal Immigrants

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122463690372357037.html

mab said...

Stag,

The real yield brick wall must have snuck up on them.

I think so. As of 12/2/09Vanguard's TIPS fund has a real yield of 0.79% and an average maturity of 8.8 years. The downside risk outweighs the negligible upside potential imo. The longer dated TIPS look better - most likely because people don't want to commit for two decades.

Besides, all the propaganda and stock market pumping in the world aren't going to change the facts on Main St. The eCONomy is still in awful shape and Wall St. has no clue how to create jobs. In fact, Wall St. only knows how to destroy jobs by outsourcing and stripping value. It's a big boiler room, short term hit and run operation.

Despite the cheery headlines, today's employment report was a disappointment imo. The headline number seemed like an improvement, but in reality it was just less bad than it could have been. Sure, the first time claims and continuing claims numbers are improving. But the numbers on extended benefits are still soaring. So much so that the total number receiving benefits set a cycle high (over 10 million for the 1st time) based on today's numbers. This metric had shown a slight decline in the past few weeks, but it's deteriorating again.

U-6 is over 17% and avg. work week is 33 hrs. That's depression ugly.

Stagflationary Mark said...

mab,

"The longer dated TIPS look better - most likely because people don't want to commit for two decades."

Momentum traders don't want to commit for more than a few seconds at best. In order to reduce the risk of long-term TIPS, it is best to simply buy and hold until maturity. Holding something for 20 years is a momentum trader's nightmare.

"Besides, all the propaganda and stock market pumping in the world aren't going to change the facts on Main St. The eCONomy is still in awful shape and Wall St. has no clue how to create jobs. In fact, Wall St. only knows how to destroy jobs by outsourcing and stripping value. It's a big boiler room, short term hit and run operation."

That's exactly how I see it too.

"Despite the cheery headlines, today's employment report was a disappointment imo."

My deflationary stance is directly related to those cheery headlines. Let's assume for the moment that the following is true.

1. Stimulus and stimulus alone is propping up this economy and the stock market.

2. The economy requires continual stimulus in order to just tread water.

3. Cheery headlines make additional stimulus more difficult. It's harder to justify extra stimulus while simultaneously trying to convince people that things are getting better.

So what does that imply?

Stagflationary Mark said...

Charles,

I just noticed that I dropped an "r" from your name in my last reply. Sorry about that!

mab said...

Stag,

So what does that imply?

I think it implies that Wall St. wants the cheery headlines to CONtinue until the bonus checks clear.

I just can't get over the fact that we are letting Wall St. walk off with billions again this year while our economy is in shambles thanks to their handiwork.

Crony capitalism leads to socialism or revolution. Federal reserve inflation is taxation without representation.

The system "serves" the people - to Wall St.

Stagflationary Mark said...

mab,

"I just can't get over the fact that we are letting Wall St. walk off with billions again this year while our economy is in shambles thanks to their handiwork."

You are going to have a field day with the Karl Marx quote I managed to find for my latest post. Let's just say it involves "vampire-like", "sucking", and "sucks".

Charles Kiting said...

I just noticed that I dropped an "r" from your name in my last reply. Sorry about that!

I am deeply offended that you spelled my fake name incorrectly.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Hahaha! :)