Apocalypse Fatigue

It's been a rough month.

Our 25-year-old bird is sick. We took her to the emergency vet. She stayed overnight. We think she ate part of her cage. Ingested some metals. She's prone to seizures and these were the most violent we'd ever seen. Feathers and blood everywhere. Not good.

Took her to her regular vet for a followup. She was terrified and escaped their control long enough for even more feathers and blood. Ouch.

We've set up a hospital cage for her made out of a large plastic storage container drilled with holes and filled with towels. It's treating her well so far.

Meanwhile, we ordered a new large steel cage for her. We were fortunate to find one on sale, because they are not cheap. There are SO many out of stock right now. It was originally supposed to be delivered two days ago but there was a delay due to a train derailment. I kid you not. It arrived today and we put it together. Fortunately, that went well. She's not ready for her new and improved home, but it will be ready when she is.

In other news, it's not been a great month for the stock market. I'm still up 10% since I bought back in December, even with today's tobacco stock selloff. The decision to diversify out of utilities is still holding up well. Utilities are not reacting well at all to the rise in the 10-year yield. Had I stayed entirely in utilities, the gains would be cut in half. On a brighter note, still doing better than the 30-year Treasury bond. By. A. Wide. Margin. A 0.37% increase in yield x 30 years is roughly an 11% loss.

No more VPU specific reports. It's only 20% of my IRA now (and my IRA is a relatively small part of my net worth), so my motivation to track it closely just isn't there any longer.

Cabin fever is becoming apocalypse fatigue. Since 2020, it’s starting to feel like we're in the "what can go wrong, will go wrong" era. My hoarding tendencies are on high alert, with each new "out of stock", "shortage", "supply chain disruption", and "Covid" story adding to the personal drama. The drama is real. Any resemblances to the many fine disaster movies I often enjoy are hopefully entirely coincidental, military soldiers driving gasoline tanker trucks in Great Britain notwithstanding. *cringe*

And lastly, my posting frequency will most likely be somewhat reduced in the coming weeks. Looking to take a break. I will definitely continue to post trading updates, not that I have many trading plans. I’m comfortable with what I own. The next purchase will probably be more savings bonds at the start of the new year.

Trading Update V

Sold some VPU @ 150.40 to buy TSN @ 75.63.

New IRA asset allocation:

This is definitely a stock that I intend to hold long-term. I'm overweighting it and bracing for more pain. Not only has Tyson been in falling knife mode for the past month, but the White House isn't at all happy that the company raised meat prices during a pandemic. Makes inflation look bad, as if there aren't enough reasons already that inflation looks bad.

I suspect that the pace of my trading will soon grind to a halt, now that VPU is down to just 20% of my IRA. The buying and selling seems mostly done. Now it's time for the holding. If I thought that there was even a chance that we'd soon see 1% real yields on the 30-year TIPS then I would not be taking such risks.

Trading Update IV

Sold some VPU @ 151.29 to buy OKE @ 52.68 and KMI @ 16.14.

New IRA asset allocation:

Lured by the high dividends of ONEOK and Kinder Morgan. I'm certainly taking on a lot of risk for an economy in uncharted waters. *shrug*

VPU Performance v.008

Months Elapsed: 8
Total Growth: 12.80%
Annualized Growth Rate: 19.81%
Distribution Yield (TTM): 2.80%

This isn't a sustainable growth rate. There is risk here, especially if inflation isn't transitory and yields don't continue to decay over the long-term. That said, I'm still comfortable holding it.

I did sell about half of my VPU position this month to buy BTI, MO, PM, and VZ. As a group, I'm up 0.66% on those. Would be doing better if I had not overweighted BTI and VZ. No plans to change course though. Feel good about the allocation.

And lastly, also bought platinum Eagles this month. On the one hand, it would cost 3.27% extra to buy them now. On the other hand, I would lose 3.67% if I sold them now. Still fighting the ~7% round trip spread. That was a tough long-term call. Could have bought a platinum fund that charges 0.5% per year instead. I therefore need to hold at least 14 years to make holding the coins the better choice. As an added bonus, holding platinum coins in one's hand beats holding a paper IOU, especially if there comes a time when many paper IOUs become worthless.

Trading Update III

Sold some VPU @ 150.39 to buy VZ @ 55.98.

New IRA asset allocation:

Lured by Verizon's 4.5% dividend that seems reasonably safe, or as safe as an illusion of prosperity blogger could reasonably hope to expect. Safe is relative in a -0.27% 30-year TIPS world, of course.

Once again, not investment advice.

Trading Update

Sold some VPU @ $145.69 to buy BTI @ $37.67, PM @ $100.47, and MO @ $47.97. New IRA asset allocation now looks like this.

Didn't want to sell VPU, but needed to do it in order to buy these three tobacco stocks. The trade was inspired by this post (and quite a few before it) at Credit Bubble Stocks. The temptation to buy has been growing over the past few months, and I finally pulled the trigger.

Part of the appeal of VPU is the addictive nature of electricity combined with relatively high dividends. Adding the addictive nature of nicotine and even higher dividends to the mix seems like more of the same. As an added bonus, it offers more diversification (and potentially greater rewards). I'm no longer relying on just one industry. I anticipate holding all of these investments for at least a decade.

If you are curious as to why I overweighted BTI, I was intrigued by its ultra low 0.14% short interest (according to TD Ameritrade, as of 7/15/21). Shorting a stock with an 8% dividend yield is not for the faint of heart. You better know something that others don't. Apparently, not many think they do. If so few traders want to sell shares they don't own, perhaps I should be willing to buy more. And so, I did.

This is not investment advice.