Unemployment Level

The following chart shows the natural log of the unemployment level. When using natural logs, constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line. I have added two sets of trend lines to the chart. The lines in red represent the old trend. The lines in blue represent a possible new trend.

Will unemployment growth return to the more manageable red channel? Or will it continue within the much more concerning blue channel? Or neither?

Be careful out there. Might not be the safest time in all of recorded history to swing for the fences.

Not investment advice.

Elon Musk’s Idea of Work

Link

While working, surf the Internet and post your thoughts! Be the productivity change you want to see in the world!

Wage Inflation Pressure

The following chart shows the natural log of U.S. wage and salary disbursements. When using natural logs, constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line.

The Fed does not need to deflate wages back into the long-term channel in green, but rather to return to the slope of that channel. What's done is done. Deflation to undo the high inflation is definitely not the goal.

Some progress is being made. We've noved from the steep slope of the red line to the more moderate slope of the yellow line.

I'm convinced that they can achieve their goal, one way or another. But at what cost? I can be a bit cynical, but there's a high risk here that we're still in the early stages of a no-win situation.

How high will the unemployment rate need to rise to get us back to the healthier wage inflation trend? I have no idea, but I can say with 100% certainty that 100% unemployment would do it. Can't have any wage and salary disbursements if nobody is working.

The bulk of my net worth sits in inflation-protected I-Bonds and TIPS. As of about a year ago, my IRA sits entirely in bonds without inflation protection (TLT). And here's where I sit until I see a reason to take on more risk. Near record unemployment expected to rise, falling house prices, and high interest rates are not things that make me excited about taking on riskier investments.

Not investment advice.

Massive Economic Uncertainty Continues

So many consumer surveys, but none of them ask the key questions for the next year:
- How much did you accumulate in savings during the pandemic?
- How much do you have left?
- How much of that do you intend to spend?
Without the answers, forecast margins of error are *massive.*

Twitter: Ian Shepherdson

Great questions. Too bad the Fed Chairman can't see the answers.

Jerome “The Earl” Powell

The following chart shows the unemployment rate minus the 12-month percentage change in the median CPI. I have added long-term trend lines in red and a short-term arrow in green.

I looked at Earl and his eyes was wide
His lip was curled, and his leg was fried
And his hand was froze to the wheel
Like a tongue to a sled in the middle of a blizzard

I says, Earl, "I'm not the type to complain
But the time has come for me to explain
That if you don't apply some brake real soon
They're gonna have to pick us up with a stick and a spoon"

Whip Inflation Now!

The following chart shows the natural log of the 30-year Treasury yield. When using natural logs, constant exponential growth (or decay) is seen as a straight line. I have added long-term trend lines in red and a short-term trend arrow in green.

Will the long-term trend ultimately prevail? Trapped in a world of nearly permanent ZIRP?

Will the short-term trend break everything? Housing! Stocks! Bonds! Employment!

Will it be a combination of both? Or neither?

Stay tuned for the next exciting and terrifying episode of...

Global Devolution!

Job Openings Per Capita

Pop goes the weasel.

The Exponential Path to Dystopia

The following chart shows the natural log of the dividends to wages ratio. When using natural logs, constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line. I have added two trend lines in red (one for the peaks and one for the troughs).

The two trend lines can be traced back to where they meet. The year was roughly 1971. Doubt it's a coincidence. I'm tempted to say that falling off of the gold standard is when the illusion of long-term prosperity truly began. Kind of makes me feel like a prosperity chart archeologist.

As disturbing as that is, I'm not done yet. Note that:

1. Bad things often happen when we move towards the troughs.
2. We've been moving towards a trough lately.
3. Very bad things have been happening lately.
4. Should we ultimately reach the next trough, there's still a very long way to go.

Retail Trade Employment per Capita

The good news, if you can call it that, is that we've managed to climb back to the declining trend line in red. Here's the reaction from our cat Dexter:

It's the same look he has when hunting buggies, birbs, bees, and bagholders. Okay, maybe not bagholders. He's just a cat, not a Wall Street professional trader. In a world of predators, it's easy to forget that.

In all seriousness, it would be an understatement to say that I am not optimistic about where retail trade employment heads from here. The short-term recovery tailwinds are gone. The long-term automation headwinds remain. May we live in dangerously interesting times. Sigh.

Producer Price Index

The following chart shows the natural log of the producer price index for all commodities. When using natural logs, constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line.

We've been screaming towards the top of the channel like a runaway train. Our engineer (the Fed) is now desperately attempting to apply the brakes. The odds of a soft train landing seem incredibly low. Beware the rapidly approaching Deadman's Economy Curve. We're likely to derail!

Some might argue that we've already derailed. The worst is now behind us. I'm not convinced. Since when has maximum pain been achieved with near record low unemployment? It seems to me that we still have plenty of pent-up depressionary pain potential. Surely the unemployment rate has not achieved a permanently low plateau, especially given all the financial pain both the stock and bond markets have recently dished out. In fact, it's entirely possible that the pain party might just be getting started. Perhaps the Great Recession will be followed up with an even greater one. *cringe*

This is definitely not financial advice. I am and have been very concerned about our long-term future, much like many must have been during the fall of the Roman Empire. Who is responsible? We all are.

No single raindrop believes it is to blame for the flood.

Risks of a Hard Landing in One Chart

Oil and Natural Gas Extraction Employment per Capita

As a group, KMI and OKE have risen 9% since I recently purchased them. The high volatility, even when it works in my favor, makes me more than a bit nervous. A primary goal of mine is to not lose sleep over my investments. A secondary goal is to be especially fearful when investors are especially greedy. Are oil and natural gas investors being especially greedy right now? The following chart suggests that we are not.

I thouht about locking in some oil and natural gas gains and reducing my exposure today. After creating this chart, the feeling passed. There seems to be plenty of room left to run.

September 27, 2021
Nasdaq: US Oil & Natural Gas Rig Tally Rises for 3 Straight Weeks

Natural Gas Rig Count Declines in US: Natural gas rig count of 99 was lower than the prior-week count of 100. The count of rigs exploring the commodity was, however, higher than the prior-year week’s 75. Per the latest report, the number of natural gas-directed rigs is roughly 94% below the all-time high of 1,606 recorded in 2008.

This is definitely not investment/speculation advice. There's a reason why these stocks have high dividends and are so volatile. With great rewards come great risks. Only hindsight can show if the risk was actually worth it, and even then it might not be. If one bets their life savings on a triple or nothing coin flip, the math says it is a great bet. It would be little consolation if one loses though.

The Case for Permanent ZIRP

The following chart shows the natural log of retail trade. When using natural logs, constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line.

As the pandemic hit, the exponential growth of retail sales failed to the downside. Using massive and mostly temporary stimulus, retail sales then overshot the historical channel and failed to the upside. Look where it's headed next. Welcome to the world of barely damped harmonic motion.

Can You Drive a Car With Damaged Suspension?

A broken shock absorber will result in your car bouncing around, as well as excessive rolling, squatting and diving. In other words, it won't be comfortable. Plus, your car will be harder to control, especially at high speeds. For that reason, you should never drive a car with a broken shock absorber at high speeds and avoid sudden turns and abrupt stops.

If you aren't even a bit worried about the current state of the Fed's economic shock absorbers, then maybe you should be?

The Sarcasm Report v.286

What if you don't pay well? Same story?

Was it cause and effect? Or simply a coincidence?

Is it really paradise? Or just an illusion?

By not clicking on the links to these stories in my Google news feed today, we're left with more questions than answers. Sorry about that.

The Cascading Exponential Trend Failures of Real GDP Growth

The headlines are dominated by talk of robust GDP growth during the recovery. Thought it might be a good time to offset that with a few charts of real GDP reality.

Here is a short-term chart of the natural log of real GDP. When using logarithms, constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line.

Note that, thanks to the virus, we failed to stay in the green channel. We're currently throwing everything at real GDP, including the kitchen sink, just in an attempt to get back to where we were. Also note that real GDP growth was weakening before the virus even hit. The Fed raised rates in 2017 and 2018. In 2019, the Fed was forced to backtrack on that plan. In hindsight, a rate of 2.4% was too draconian. The Fed ended the year at only 1.6%. And then, the virus hit.

So, in the short-term, we're definitely attempting to claw our way back to that green trend channel. But what about long-term?

The red channel is where we once were. That ship has sailed. No hope of ever getting back to it, especially now that we have a Covid baby bust. That exponential trend failed spectacularly, leaving us with a new green channel. The green channel then failed too. Cascading exponential trend failures. That's where we are now.

Here's the good news. We're all in this perma-ZIRP handbasket together and some of us strongly suspect where we are headed. Brush up on your Japanese and enjoy the ride! We might not like the ultimate destination all that much, but the path to get there is filled with easy money. And when I say easy money, I'm not expecting retired savers patiently waiting for interest rates to "normalize" to someday make out like bandits. This isn't a Hollywood movie. If anything, it's more like Gilligan's Island. Being stuck at zero is normal. Interest rates have been exponentially decaying for 40 years. It's just more of the same.

Mining Productivity Miracle

The following chart shows the mining industrial production index divided by the number of mining employees (thousands).

Bagger 293

Bagger 293 is 96 metres (314.9 feet) tall (Guinness World Record for highest terrestrial vehicle, shared with Bagger 288). It is 225 metres (738.2 feet) long (same as Bagger 287), weighs 14,200 tonnes (31.3 million pounds), and requires five people to operate.

At what point are these fully-automated and/or self-replicating?

New York City Restaurant Employment

The exponential growth trend failed in 2015, the Fed started raising rates in 2016, and then the pandemic hit in 2020. What's next? Meteor?



Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: All Employees: Leisure and Hospitality: Full-Service Restaurants in New York City, NY

TV Show Idea: Soap Bubble

The following chart shows nonresidential construction employees divided by residential construction employees.

With record low housing inventory, record low mortgage rates, a Fed committed to ZIRP for the foreseeable future, and a potential permanent increase in working from home, an acceleration of the downward trend in the chart seems inevitable to me.

Will history repeat? Will 2010 to 2027 play out exactly like 1990 to 2007? Will our next financial crisis be another housing bubble disaster? Will the Fed step in to save the economy with even more ZIRP in 2027? Will long-term Treasury yields continue to temporarily scream higher in a futile effort to resist the overwhelming long-term deflationary forces?

Tune in next week for another exciting episode of Soap Bubble!

The Lords of Land

The following chart shows the rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment divided by wage and salary disbursements.

We can't all be the lords of land. At some point, there would be a landlord glut. Might already be there.

The 30 Trillion Dollar Elephant in the Room

The following chart shows household and nonprofit debt. I have added an exponential trend line in red based on the data from 1952 to 2007.

We are now $30 trillion below the consumer debt trend that was in place for 55 years. Ben Bernanke once said that credit is the lifeblood of our economy. The lifeblood is certainly not pumping like it once did. Is it any wonder that Janet Yellen is practically begging for more fiscal stimulus?

While others talk of an economy that will soon temporarily overheat, I ponder what this elephant's continuing long-term impact on real GDP growth will be and if yet another elephant will appear in a post-pandemic world.

See no elephants, hear no elephants, speak no elephants.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Households and Nonprofit Organizations; Debt Securities and Loans; Liability, Level