The Sarcasm Report v.280

January 8, 2021
CBS News: Object that whizzed by Earth probably came from alien world, Harvard professor asserts

Loeb argues in his book that the object was probably debris from advanced alien technology – space junk from many light years away. It may have been a type of "light sail" propelled by sunlight, a technology that humans are currently developing for space exploration.

Yeah, out of the nearly infinite number of ways an object like that could have potentially been created, debris from advanced alien technology does seem to be the most probable reason for its existence. I mean, really. The object looks weird. What more evidence do we need? In fact, weird objects are almost always debris from alien technology, advanced or otherwise.

He said his ideas aren't popular in the scientific community right now – talking about potential extraterrestrial intelligence is "out of the mainstream, and it should not be."

Who would have predicted that his ideas aren't popular in the scientific community right now? That's the truly shocking part! ;)

(Possible? Yes. Probable? Bat**** crazy.)

Grave Creek Mound

Grave Creek Mound - Tim Kiser (w:User:Malepheasant)


Click to enlarge.

Coincidence?

Grave Creek Mound

At 62 feet (19 m) high and 240 feet (73 m) in diameter, the Grave Creek Mound in the Ohio River Valley in West Virginia is one of the largest conical-type burial mounds in the United States.

This post inspired by That 80s Show at Dollar Death $piral.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

The Illusion of an Auto Industry "Recovery"

The following chart shows the 12-month moving average of total vehicle miles traveled.


Click to enlarge.

What recovery? For what it is worth, I do not believe we will ever reach that peak again. If four full years of "recovery" combined with 4+ years of ZIRP hasn't made any progress towards returning to our former illusionary glory, then what can?

This chart implies that there will not be any long-term auto industry growth within the U.S. (other than the temporary pent-up demand created during recessions). How's that for greatly depressing?

The next chart shows the total vehicle miles traveled per capita.


Click to enlarge.

I know this sounds crazy, but ever since yesterday on the road, I've been seeing this shape. Shaving cream, pillows. Dammit! I know this. I know what this is! This means something. This is important. - Roy Neary, Close Encounters of the Third Kind, 1977

As seen in the chart, welcome to 1998. I turned into a permabear in the fall of 2004 (just as the upward trend was beginning to peak). I watched the stock market roar on without me into 2007. I then watched as the stock market come roaring back down. It's roaring back up again on the misguided hopes of luring me back in perhaps. I have but one thing to say.

Yawn.

July 19, 2013
Calculated Risk: DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven increased 0.9% in May

With all these factors, it might take several more years before we see a new peak in miles driven.

Based on what? Put me down for never. Seriously. If we're driving even half as many miles per capita after our population has doubled, then I would be extremely surprised. It would mean that the virtual reality video games of the distant future, pardon my language, suck. It would also mean that Amazon.com hasn't figured out a way to automate most retail sales jobs (or for that matter, jobs in general). I'm certainly not betting on that outcome! This is assuming our population even will double of course. I have my doubts on that as well. Things happen to countries stuck in ZIRP.

Working Age Population in Japan

Click to enlarge.

July 9, 2013
Baby bust? National birthrate hits an all-time low due to weak economic recovery

The recession has been over for four years, but the birth rate in the U.S. continues to fall as many people struggle with a sluggish economy and financial uncertainty.

According to a recent analysis by the Pew Institute, since 2007 when there were a record 4,316,233 births, the number of births has been steadily declining, with 4,007,000 births in 2012 - the lowest number since 1998.

Like I said previously, welcome to 1998.

I'll leave on this bonus thought. If the economy of the future really does stink then perhaps more people will start to carpool. Could there be any more single occupancy vehicles out on the road? I'm not being judgmental. I'm as guilty as the next person. I'm just saying that there is plenty of fat to cut when the fat needs cutting. And as a side note, Ben Bernanke desperately wants us to not cut the fat, lest we experience Great Recession II, return of the killer recession. Sigh.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Moving 12-Month Total Vehicle Miles Traveled
St. Louis Fed: Moving 12-Month Total Vehicle Miles Traveled per Capita
St. Louis Fed: Working Age Population: Aged 15 and Over: All Persons for Japan

Garbage In, Garbage Out

The following chart shows real annualized total public construction spending on sewage and waste disposal per capita (February 2013 dollars).


Click to enlarge.

I know this sounds crazy, but ever since yesterday on the road, I've been seeing this shape. Shaving cream, pillows. Dammit! I know this. I know what this is! This means something. This is important. - Roy Neary, Close Encounters of the Third Kind, 1977

See Also:
Wikipedia: Garbage in, garbage out

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Missing Jobs by Gender

The following chart shows the exponential growth of non-farm payrolls by gender. I've included an exponential trend line for each gender based on the trend that was established from 1964 to 1990.



The next chart shows the difference between the number of jobs and the trend line.



The exponential growth in payroll jobs for women has failed and it has failed spectacularly. What caused this? Math! That's all it took.



Note that women now make up 50% of payrolls. That trend reached its logical conclusion. It's over and we need to adapt to the new reality.

Here's something else that will most likely cause us to adapt. What's going to happen to the previous charts when the following long-term trend starts forming?



What's going to happen if Corporate America's new wave of robot workers decide not to shop at our country's many strip malls? Then what?

And lastly, check this out.

June 25, 2011
Missing Jobs vs. Trade Deficit


Compare and contrast it to the missing jobs for women.



I'm not suggesting that they are directly related. I doubt that they are. I just find it interesting that the two shapes are so similar (and that neither trend is our long-term friend).



I can't describe it, what I'm feeling and what I'm thinking. This means something. This is important.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: All Employees: Total nonfarm
St. Louis Fed: Women Employees: Total Nonfarm

Corporate Profits Revisited

Here's something I posted back in 2007. I consider it to be one of my most important charts. This one really gave me an epiphany. Perhaps it will do the same for you.

December 7, 2007
Corporate Profits



This chart shows the total domestic financial, farm, and non-financial corporation profits (before taxes) divided by the total compensation of employees.

How long will it be before we return to the red trend line? Or is this a new permanent era of prosperity? Note that the long-term trend is down. I believe I can offer a simple explanation for that. I would think that in a capitalistic society, competition would eventually squeeze the life out of all profits.

If money can be made, someone will figure out a way to extract it. If a lot of money can be made (like right now it seems), MANY people will find MANY different ways to extract it. You know, just like homebuilders in California once were. Build them fast and sell them even faster!

I excluded the profits made off the "rest of the world" primarily because I'm interested in how our domestic economy is doing. Right now it is doing absolutely fantastic. Just look at all those fat profits ripe for the picking. You'll excuse me if I wait until the bottom falls out first though. I'm no thrill seeker these days.

Here's an updated chart using the most recent Flow of Funds data.



I offer three observations for stock market investors. Keep in mind they are just my opinions though.

1. As predicted, we are clearly heading back down towards the red trend line. There really was no other choice. As seen above, that's the way capitalism must work. Fat profits that are that ripe for the picking will be picked repeatedly until they are gone (one way or another).

2. The red trend line is down. That's actually something that Karl Marx predicted. He claimed that capitalism would eventually squeeze all profits to the vanishing point. In 2007, I was just trying to make sense of the chart. I didn't realize at the time I was actually backing his theory.

3. The line represents the average trend. By definition, we must spend as much time below an average as we spend above an average. That would imply that there's a decent chance we won't conveniently stop once we hit the line. It is not outside the realm of possibility that we drop to 7.5% on the chart. We've done it before. We're at 13.6% right now. That's a long ways down. It is also not outside the possibility that we drop even further than that. First, the trend is down. Second, the bigger the climb the bigger the fall. As seen in the chart, it was a very big climb. We certainly spent a lot of time well above the average.

Any one of those points would scare me away from the stock market, even at these supposedly bargain basement prices. The combination is brutal though. I just don't need the risk. The sidelines have been treating me very well and I'm quite content to stay here. I certainly have no desire whatsoever to bottom feed ABOVE the trend line.

Note that I haven't even mentioned debt yet. That's what originally turned me bearish. I thought we were trying to borrow our recovery. I think you can see how well that worked out by simply looking at the chart from 2004 to 2008. It felt good to borrow the money and then it didn't feel so good. Big shocker.

Are we better off than we were in 2004? I would argue that we are worse off. Most of that debt we threw at the problem back then is still with us. Meanwhile, our stock market is much lower and our unemployment is much higher.

Using debt to solve our structural problems didn't work long-term the last time we tried it so of course we're going to try borrowing again in a much bigger way. That pretty much goes without saying.

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. - Albert Einstein

See Also:
Trend Line Disclaimer

Source Data:
FRB: Flow of Funds Accounts

A Fifth Third Half of Year Recovery?

Q: Who is looking for a fifth third half of year recovery?

A: Fifth Third Bancorp shareholders, that's who! Badum-ching!

Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB)

Fifth Third Bancorp. operates as a diversified financial services holding company.

Here's a long-term chart of what financial services diversification can get you.

I know this sounds crazy, but ever since yesterday on the road, I've been seeing this shape. Shaving cream, pillows. Dammit! I know this. I know what this is! This means something. This is important. - Roy Neary, Close Encounters of the Third Kind, 1977

It never gets old. Sorry!

You think I investigate every Walter Cronkite story there is? Huh? If this is just nerve gas, how come I know everything in such detail? I've never been here before. How come I know so much? What the hell is going on around here? Who the hell are you people? - Roy Neary, Close Encounters of the Third Kind, 1977

Why did I have to sign the loan documents in blood? Why did I have to promise a first born? Why am I in this hand basket? Where am I headed? Why is it getting so hot?

Science illusion and ignoring the lessons of history

The first is that even at this late stage, we should never underestimate the ability of the banks to come up with novel ways of losing money.

The real beauty of too big to fail is that failure simply isn't an option. Oh the risks I would take if that worked for my own personal finances. Heck, I might even try buying stocks again at some point. Who knows!

This is not intended as another of those doom-laden comparisons with the Great Depression. The point is rather that as this crisis unfolds, some of our previous optimism seems the product of complacency or lack of understanding. We already knew what went wrong before. What we are now learning – the hard way – is why.

Doom-laden comparisons with the Great Depression must be thought of as a bonus. That's how I think of them anyway.

Alternatively, in China – whose leading banks are now much the world’s largest by market value – government has used its majority control to keep the banks lending. That is one reason why, according to the latest Merrill Lynch fund manager survey, investors now base their hopes for global recovery once more on the Chinese locomotive.

Given the recent collapse in China’s trade figures, that may be a long shot. It rather sounds as if the old decoupling theory is making a comeback out of sheer desperation.

Welcome to the Great Desperation.

Close Encounters of the Fear Kind

Let's say I have some money and I wish to earn interest on it.

If I am greedy, I might choose to lend it to someone for 30 years so that they can buy a house. There are obviously many risks here (potential rising inflation, getting paid back, and so on). The lower the interest rate I choose to accept (to offset those risks) the more greedy I am.

If I am fearful, I might choose to lend it someone with a printing press so that they can always pay me back. I could offset some of that risk by not lending them for very long periods (say three months at a time). The lower the interest rate I choose to accept the more fearful I am.

This chart, in my opinion, therefore shows the fear minus greed spread between the 30 year mortgage rate and the 3 month treasury bill. The higher the number, the more fear there is.

Here's the odd part. I've seen that chart before.



I know this sounds crazy, but ever since yesterday on the road, I've been seeing this shape. Shaving cream, pillows. Dammit! I know this. I know what this is! This means something. This is important. - Roy Neary, Close Encounters of the Third Kind, 1977

I must apologize. I'm fairly sure this joke is never going to get old to me. Sorry!!

One last thought. This is gallows humor. My girlfriend has been unemployed for about six weeks. Her former employer has not lifted a finger to help her (she can't even collect unemployment because the employer refuses to respond to the unemployment office).

See Also:
Employment Report Shows Stagnation?
"Fresh Inflation"
Motorola Equity Withdrawal (MEW)

Source Data:
FRB: Selected Interest Rates

"Fresh Inflation"

Fresh inflation spells trouble for China
U.S. companies buying from China face a double whammy: Not only are prices rising in terms of the yuan, but Beijing has also quietly begun allowing the yuan itself to rise at a faster pace against the dollar.

Deflation has spoiled (us). The chef does recommend the inflation though. It is fresh. We just shipped in some last night.

Many manufacturers, as well as retailers of manufactured goods, have not yet raised prices, hoping to hold on to market share even as China's production capacity keeps growing.

Many home builders, as well as sellers of manufactured homes, have not yet raised prices, hoping to hold on to market share even as United States housing capacity keeps growing.

I know this sounds crazy, but ever since yesterday on the road, I've been seeing this shape. Shaving cream, pillows. Dammit! I know this. I know what this is! This means something. This is important. - Roy Neary, Close Encounters of the Third Kind, 1977

Motorola Equity Withdrawal (MEW)

Motorola Gives A Piece of Itself to Emerson
Motorola has had a difficult recent past. Despite rising 2.6% over the past three months, and 3.2% over the past six, it's fallen 26.5% over the past year. Much of the reason has stemmed from a drop in investor confidence after they perceived the company has run in place following the success of its Razr phone, rather than use the momentum of its success to gain a greater slice of the handset market.

A difficult recent past? A drop in investor confidence? Has run in place? Momentum of past success? Going after a bigger slice of the market?

I know this sounds crazy, but ever since yesterday on the road, I've been seeing this shape. Shaving cream, pillows. Dammit! I know this. I know what this is! This means something. This is important. - Roy Neary, Close Encounters of the Third Kind, 1977