Trump Is Winning: ‘We Couldn’t Remotely Envision This Outcome’

The New York Times shows Trump currently has a 95% chance of winning. S&P 500 futures are currently down more than 4%. Treasury yields have fallen. Pollsters are in shock. The mainstream media is in shock. The world is in shock.

See? It really is the Headline of the Day! My fear really has been realized. Hey, but what's new? I'm a long-term saver during perpetual ZIRP. I'm not a believer in the resilience of our long-term economy. Very little shocks me these days. May we live in interesting times.

The "futures" are so bright that I gotta keep the shades closed.

Poll: Is the Gambling Industry Dying?

The following chart shows casino hotel employment. I have added a parabolic trend line in red for your consideration.


Click to enlarge.

Please vote in the poll! It can currently be found in the upper left hand corner of my blog.

I'm sure glad that's out of the way. I got my vote in early! Easiest... poll... ever! Oh, wait. What's this?

November 12, 2014
Forex Investors May Face $1 Billion Loss as Trade Site Vanishes

Since when is forex trading considered to be investing? For every dollar made by a trader, some other trader must lose a dollar. It's a zero-sum game. Further, there are transaction fees to consider. Say, this seems a lot like a hotel casino the more I think about it.

“Ninety percent of traders in forex end up losing money,” it said.

Do they at least get complimentary drinks?

“Every day, I saw they were making me profits,” Mandal says. “And then it’s suddenly gone. It gave me psychological pain and stress. I feel very embarrassed.”

Good grief! I need to change my vote in the poll! Oh, thank the heavens! Blogger lets me change it! If you feel the same, then for the love of all that is holy, change it now before someone notices the folly of our ways!

This post inspired by the comments of GDD9000 as seen at Calculated Risk.

Source Data:
BLS: CES Databases

Poll: Is There a Sarcasm Bubble?

Why am I polling? I recently noticed that I am getting more traffic from Finland.

Do’s and dont's in Finland

Finns may appear shy and serious, but their humor is dry and sarcastic, and they are opinionated and competitive.

Now I can't say for sure if that's true, but it got me to thinking about my blog.

Here is a shocking statistic:

I've created 3,264 posts on this blog. 1,865 of them used the sarcasm label.

57% of my posts are sarcastic in nature!

Here is something even more shocking:

Since being trapped in a zero interest rate policy, the use of my sarcasm label has gone up exponentially! I'm not sure that I'm going to be able to sustain this sarcastic growth rate well into the distant future. ZIRP has made everything so cheap on a relative basis. Producers of sarcasm, such as myself, are cranking it out like the party will never end! It will most likely end with a serious sarcasm glut!

So that brings me to my latest poll. It's been a long time. You will find the poll in the upper left hand corner of my blog. They say that the wording of the question can seriously bias the results. I'm trying to make this poll as scientific as possible, so I kept the wording to an absolute minimum. I also made the question as clear and as simple as possible. I'm also giving you plenty of time to decide (until the end of the year). Research it. Do your own due diligence. Don't rely on the anecdotal evidence within this post.

Is There a Sarcasm Bubble?

Vote!!

Keep in mind that voting is very important in a democracy and I have structured the poll accordingly. For example, you can choose a Republican political party that will run unsustainable government deficits over the long-term or you can choose a Democratic political party that will run unsustainable government deficits over the long-term. The choice is always yours! There's absolutely no reason to feel helpless!

Here is one more piece of evidence for those who can't quite make a decision regarding the potential sarcasm bubble. This post once again uses the sarcasm label! It could therefore indicate peak sarcasm just about to pop!

Still undecided? Okay, one more piece of sarcastic evidence but that's it! No more free lunches around here.

October 31, 2014
Here's why millennials have such a hard time sticking with one job

“Young people don’t necessarily know what occupation is good for them and early in your career is when you’re going to be experimenting,” says Henry Siu, associate professor of economics at the University of British Columbia and co-author of the report.

I have two recommendations:

1. Telemarketing!
2. Coin-Operated Laundromats!

Stick to those, and the world is your oyster! Go anywhere! Within walking distance! Be anything! Assuming you don't want to be wealthy! Sigh.

See Also:
Sarcasm Disclaimer

Poll Results: Who Is Smarter? (Musical Tribute)

Poll: Who Is Smarter?

The Crow wins 28 to 2 based on a non-scientific sampling of potentially biased anonymous Internet users! Woohoo!



Ravens and Crows

Technically, since ravens belong to the crow (corvus) family of birds, they can be called crows - but not all crows are ravens.

Poll Update

Poll: Who Is Smarter?

The crow is up 10 votes to 1 over Dennis Kneale. I'm going to attempt to even the odds here, or at the very least provide more information to the voters still on the fence.

On the one hand, almost everyone loves an underdog. Let's hear it for Dennis Kneale! Hurray!



On the other hand, the DJIA has dropped below 10,000 again. That can't be helping Dennis "permabull" Kneale's popularity. It's also possible that the mean-spirited bloggers will continue to jeer his optimism from the dark and cozy safety of our mothers' basements. Who really knows for sure?

Dennis Kneale Freaks Out At "Dickweed" Blogger Critics In Epic Rant (VIDEO)

Kneale is offended that these "mean-spirited bloggers" would be "jeering" at his optimism from the "dark and cozy safety of their mothers' basements," and invites them to come on and hash it out with him.

And lastly, this isn't all about Dennis Kneale. The world does not necessarily revolve around him. The crow also deserves some airtime.

Notice how the crows and ravens choose not to fight when they know they can't win. They are smart that way.

Poll: Who Is Smarter?

From September 8, 2006...



Not only does the bird use a tool to get what it wants, but it bends that tool into something that works even better. Amazing.

From March 26, 2008...



Not only does the tool use numbers to get what it wants, but it bends those numbers into something that works even better. Amazing.

It's a tough call clearly. I'm not going to determine the winner. That's for the readers to decide. Yes, I'm opening up the polls again! It will be appearing shortly. Be sure to vote.

Poll: What Should We Invest In?

I have attempted to organize the answers in a top down fashion from the things we should probably need the least to the things we should probably need the most, in general. Some of that is open for debate obviously.

Bonds includes all forms of long-term debt instruments (including but not limited to normal treasuries and their inflation adjusted counterparts).

Gold is ranked above dollars simply because you cannot buy most goods and services directly with gold. That could of course change at some point. Gold is ranked below stocks and bonds because gold is something, in theory, you could pay the border guard with if you needed to flee the country, lol.

U.S. Dollars also includes short-term treasury bills.

Construction includes skyscrapers, factories, and/or housing.

Food includes canned goods, presumably for your pantry.

You are very bearish if you can't even invest in humans. However, there are some 6.6 billion of us now. Perhaps there is a glut.

Update: I don't mean to seem cold but adding "Humans" to the list probably comes off that way. Just keep in mind where I put them on the list (as the most important). Without people, the rest of the list is rather unimportant. Further, investing in "Humans" might simply mean you are investing in yourself.

Poll Results: How Should We Position Ourselves?

Let it not be said that I didn't at least try to put a happy face on the results.

Now would probably be a bad time to point out that the picture in the background belongs to all of us. It is a work of the United States government.

Image:Jack-in-the-box.jpg
This work is in the public domain in the United States because it is a work of the United States Federal Government under the terms of Title 17, Chapter 1, Section 105 of the US Code.

It would also probably be a bad time to point out why it was created (presumably in 2003).

CPSC, Avon Products Inc. Announce Recall to Repair Jack-In-the-Box Toys
Hazard: A spring mechanism attached to the lid can break and detach from the toy, posing a choking hazard to young children.

I refuse to let this end on a bad note though.

Propaganda
What lies behind us and lies before us are small matters compared to what lies right to our faces.

Really, it's perfect for everybody but Americans. Because we don't do that here.

Poll: How Should We Position Ourselves?

This poll is inspired by the following article.

The “Real” Story About Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS)

See Figure 5 - When to Buy TIPS

There are four choices. I have put them in my poll. Please feel free to offer your opinion on where we are headed. Also feel free to vote for multiple items if you aren't quite sure.

This subject fascinates me. I continue to ride the inflation/deflation fence and I'm curious what you think. My crystal ball is mighty cloudy.

Poll Results: The Year of the Financial Reckoning?

I have used a gambling theme to represent this month's poll since none of us can really be too sure of the future. In the background lies the Happy Valley Racecourse in Hong Kong. In the foreground lies the odds board of this poll. Each vote represents a $2 bet. I have adjusted the odds as a racetrack would and allowed the house to keep 15% of the betting pool. They also make their money on rounding though so that is and has been factored in. The house is the house after all and it absolutely loves to nickel and dime us for all it can (literally!).

So, without further adieu, the favorite by a wide margin is 2008, The Year of the Rat. He's looking pretty sharp. I can see why he might be favored.

2008, Year of the Rat: Cunning and thrifty, Rats have a knack with money and are apt to save for rainy days. When capable, the Rat is a great money saver, and in strapped times he knows how to make something out of nothing or how to turn make things advantageous for himself. Although few Rats suffer financially, the Chinese have a proverb: They who pile up grain hoards have much to lose.

I must say that does sound ominous. Saving money? Strapped times? Grain hoarding? Wow. No wonder he's the favorite!

However, one also has to look at the odds. Some of these other bets will pay off very handsomely should those who predicted them be correct.

Some years were not bet on at all though. For instance, I guess we better hope that the year of the financial reckoning doesn't happen in 2013, The Year of the Snake. If it does we are all losers. The house would keep the entire pool. Hahaha! What are the odds of that though? *cough* *choke* *gasp*

This would probably be a bad time to mention that Ben Bernanke was born in 1953, another Year of the Snake. I should probably also not mention that a Snake will often dive right into decisions without weighing the consequences, which can cause him financial ruin. We just had a rate cut with oil at $90+. Let's hope that's just a coincidence. It must be. I don't even believe in astrology!

A special thanks goes out to all who voted in the poll!

See Also:
Poll: The Year of the Financial Reckoning?

Poll: The Year of the Financial Reckoning?

I'm not much of a believer in astrology. However, assuming that we'll be faced with a financial reckoning at some point I thought it would be nice to let you pull out your best crystal ball, ouija board, and/or tea leaves for the ultimate question. Since China is on my mind, let's do it Chinese style!

I think you'll find the descriptions both entertaining AND disturbing.

2007, Year of the Pig: Pigs love to spend money. They have an eye for name brands rather than generics so they generally spend a lot of it. Pigs have a knack for being able to find a diamond in the rough. Although they can sometimes be thrifty with money, most of the time it is the reverse. Pigs should be careful; a rainy day may sneak up on them.

2008, Year of the Rat: Cunning and thrifty, Rats have a knack with money and are apt to save for rainy days. When capable, the Rat is a great money saver, and in strapped times he knows how to make something out of nothing or how to turn make things advantageous for himself. Although few Rats suffer financially, the Chinese have a proverb: They who pile up grain hoards have much to lose.

2009, Year of the Ox: Oxen believe in security, and thus don’t usually take wild risks or financial gambles. They are meticulous about spending money and work hard to ensure they will be able to retire comfortably.

2010, Year of the Tiger: Tigers depend on luck. They like to spend money, and also to share it. They can be quite impulsive spenders because they know they can always make more. Somehow, as luck would have it, they discover the end of the rainbow just before complete bankruptcy. They are willing to lose a fortune in their lifetime, if it means they will wind up with two.

2011, Year of the Rabbit: Rabbit people are usually relatively careful when it comes to their finances. And that lucky rabbit foot didn’t just come out of nowhere…Rabbits are pretty lucky folks! They use much of their money for possessions such as their homes, cars or furniture. They would rather invest their money in gadgets and things than in the stock market. They love hunting for antiques, arts and crafts and will tend to make sound investments in these types of things.

2012, Year of the Dragon: Dragons like to spend money and are charitable themselves as well as with others. They do not know the meaning of the word "accumulate," and making money does not intrigue them as it may others. Many Dragons will take big chances with their finances, sometimes betting on their shirt and losing it right off of their backs. Yet, they were born with the Midas Touch, and it very rare that a Dragon remains poor for long. Dragons will always be straightforward in financial dealings and can always be trusted.

2013, Year of the Snake: A Snake’s worst nightmare is jumping head first into a financial deal or a shopping spree. The Snake can be successful as long as he avoids extemporaneous spending. Although he is intuitive, the Snake will often dive right into decisions without weighing the consequences, which can cause him financial ruin.

2014, Year of the Horse: Horses don’t think much about money. When they have it, they spend it. When they run out, they make more. Money does not constitute a Horse’s happiness or well-being. He feels it is only icing on the cake to have some and would rather buy fun things than hoard it or save it. His philosophy? You can’t take it with you.

2015, Year of the Sheep: Sheep generally appear well-off. They love to spend money but do not find comfort or satisfaction in material things. They do have a knack with money though, which is well-suited for a person who spends money like the Sheep does. Sheep are always dressed to a T, looking well-groomed and well-dressed.

2016, Year of the Monkey: Monkeys are just as good as spending money as they are at making it. They can’t really save it because it burns a hole in their pockets. Occasionally though, Monkeys should put a little away today for an emergency tomorrow.

2017, Year of the Rooster: An eye for detail means the Rooster is pretty good at handling his finances. He is able to give others good financial advice and can help get budgets under control. However, when it comes to his own finances, the Rooster is either or. He either spends it all or hoards it for a rainy day.

2018, Year of the Dog: Dogs work hard and spend wisely. They do not work to buy luxurious things. They work to secure a future for their families. They generally have hidden savings accounts for future family endeavors such as family vacations and college tuitions.

Poll Results: What Interests You?

Thanks to all that have participated in September's extremely non-scientific and somewhat biased poll!

Charts, predictions of doom, and sarcasm lead the list, eh? That's a relief! I'll just keep doing what I have been doing then for the most part. ;)