The Ongoing Baby Bust

January 26, 2021
Brink: The Coming Baby Bust Caused by COVID-19

We’re already down 500,000 to 600,000 births per year from the recent peak in 2007, so now you’re starting to talk about approaching a million fewer babies born per year.

The following chart shows the fertility rate since 2007.

According to the United Nations Population Division, our fertility rate needs to be 2.1 just to maintain our population. Our recent 2007 peak was barely adequate, and it's been downhill ever since.

Over the long-term, those expecting a booming economy and higher real yields on investments will most likely be sorely disappointed. Welcome to Japan. Prepare for endless ZIRP. Brace for continued fertility rate disappointments as more and more come to realize the dire situation we find ourselves in.

For those who thought Trump would make America great again, you might want to look closely at the fertility rate since he was elected in 2016. Chaos and incompetence at the top only led to more uncertainty and divisiveness at the bottom. Chaos, incompetence, uncertainty, and divisiveness are not exactly great underlying conditions for fruitfulness and multiplication, if you catch my meaning.

The Clown Horn Report v.002

 

This chart is for the naysayers who thought we’d never hit 10% total annual credit market growth again. They clearly did not factor in Donald J. Trump’s business and pandemic acumen.

It wasn’t easy starting with $73.49 trillion in Q2 2019. We did make it to $81.08 trillion in Q2 2020 though, for a 10.3% gain.

$7.59 trillion in extra debt here, $7.59 trillion in extra debt there, and pretty soon we’re talking real money.

Trump Was Dune’d to Fail

And Kynes, returning the stare, found himself troubled by a fact he had observed here. This Duke was concerned more over the men than he was over the spice. He risked his own life and that of his son to save the men. He passed off the loss of a spice crawler with a gesture. The threat to men’s lives had him in a rage. A leader such as that would command fanatic loyalty. He would be difficult to defeat. Against his own will, and all previous judgments, Kynes admitted to himself, “I like this Duke.” - Frank Herbert, Dune

I think the similarities between President Donald J. Trump and Duke Leto Atreides are uncanny, other than the 400,000+ American pandemic deaths while Trump spent much of his time golfing, Trump continually throwing his loyal men under the bus to save himself, Trump’s inquiries into self-pardoning, “Sleepy Joe” easily defeating Trump, Trump’s lowest approval rating of his presidency (nearly of any American presidency), and that Trump’s not a fictional character (much to the dismay of most Americans), of course.

Other than that, uncanny!

Doom, Gloom, and Dogs

January 13, 2021
The Guardian: Top scientists warn of 'ghastly future of mass extinction' and climate disruption

Dealing with the enormity of the problem requires far-reaching changes to global capitalism, education and equality, the paper says. These include abolishing the idea of perpetual economic growth...

Reading all of this doom and gloom during a pandemic is a bit much, even for an Illusion of Prosperity blogger. I therefore attempt an escape from reality to the relative safety of my German Shepherd puppy memories.

Wow! That actually worked? I feel so much better now. In fact, I'm barely even thinking about how our very own loser of a president recently incited violence, death, and looting at our very own U.S. Capitol.

Dog therapy for the win! Let the healing begin!!

Standing Back and Standing Down

We'll be standing back and standing down for at least 4 years! Woohoo!

P.S. Best election year ever. 🙂