Tuesday, December 13, 2022

Converting Paper Savings Bonds

Dear Customer,

This is a system generated email to communicate we received your Savings Bonds/Treasury Marketable Securities materials.

Cases are worked in the order they are received in our office. Your request is important to us and will receive attention as soon as possible. Please allow up to 13 weeks for review and processing. If we require additional information, we will contact you. Thank you for your patience.

Up to 13 weeks? Ouch. The wheels on the governmental bureaucratic bus go round and round, round and round, round and round.

Tuesday, November 22, 2022

Elondriel’s Next Motivational Speech

In place of Twitter you would have a King! Not dark but beautiful and terrible as the seven cent Doge! Treacherous as the SpaceX! Stronger than the foundations of Tesla! All shall love me and despair!

Thursday, November 17, 2022

Cancel Cultured Redux

November 17, 2022
The Guardian: Twitter user gets account back after ban for ‘intimate’ image of meteor

“It was not offensive or pornographic at all,” said McIntyre. “It was just a meteor.”

Been there, done that. It was just a puppy! It was just a circle! Ignorance of the social media law is no defense.

The social media law could not be any more clear. Do not post content that could potentially offend any human, either real or imagined.

Here is a concrete example of what not to post:

Very offensive. Don't do that. ;)

Monday, November 14, 2022

Cancel Cultured

I bought a pretty fantastic magnetic tool on Amazon for drawing circles. Amazon pestered me to leave reviews, so I opted to comply. After submitting the following one sentence glowing review with this video demonstrating the product in all of its glory, Amazon deleted all of my reviews and has warned me to follow their guidelines. By the way, ignoring these guidelines can apparently lead to my account being suspended. Since I own Kindle books and am not much of a risk taker, no more Amazon reviews from me. Ever.

Welcome to social media dystopian crazy metropolis, which is a few steps up from crazy town. We've come a long way since the days I deleted my Twitter account for being shadow banned due to posting puppy pictures. A long, long way. You don't even need to incite an insurrection. Progress!

We are so headed down the doom scrolling dystopian path, and with it the illusion of prosperity will surely prosper. The illusion that is, not so much the prosperity. Sigh.

Thursday, November 10, 2022

Gimme Shelter

The following chart shows the natural log of the CPI for shelter. When using natural logs, constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line. I have added long-term trend lines in red.

With lofty housing prices and lofty mortgage rates, it seems very unlikely that we're going to make it back to the top of the trend channel anytime soon. Which, if you think about it, is kind of odd. I could swear that the Fed really wanted that. Just not all at once, apparently. Too bad.

If I were a gambling man, I would wager that there is more risk leaving the channel to the downside than to the upside. And maybe I am a gambling man, because I continue to hold TLT. Very encouraged by today's CPI report. One battle doesn't win the war though, of course.

Sunday, October 30, 2022

Been There, Done That

The following chart shows the natural log of total business inventories. When using natural logs, constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line. I have added a long-term trend channel in red.

Saturday, October 29, 2022

Massive Economic Uncertainty Continues

So many consumer surveys, but none of them ask the key questions for the next year:
- How much did you accumulate in savings during the pandemic?
- How much do you have left?
- How much of that do you intend to spend?
Without the answers, forecast margins of error are *massive.*

Twitter: Ian Shepherdson

Great questions. Too bad the Fed Chairman can't see the answers.

Monday, October 24, 2022

Jerome “The Earl” Powell

The following chart shows the unemployment rate minus the 12-month percentage change in the median CPI. I have added long-term trend lines in red and a short-term arrow in green.

I looked at Earl and his eyes was wide
His lip was curled, and his leg was fried
And his hand was froze to the wheel
Like a tongue to a sled in the middle of a blizzard

I says, Earl, "I'm not the type to complain
But the time has come for me to explain
That if you don't apply some brake real soon
They're gonna have to pick us up with a stick and a spoon"