Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Seasonally Adjusted LA Area Port Traffic

As we are about to head into the Christmas season, I figured it might be informative to update a few of these charts.

Look at all that "shock and awe" our trading partners are feeling. We are now roughly 437,000 TEUs below the unsustainable long-term exponential trend. It's like we hit an illusion of prosperity wall or something. Go figure.

That surge in exports is apparently losing its momentum too. Again.

Let's hope there are actual customers for all of this stuff. We're partying almost like it is 2007. Well, sort of. It's not entirely like 2007 come to think of it.

See Also:
Calculated Risk: LA Port Traffic in August: Imports Surge, Exports down year-over-year
Trend Line Disclaimer

Source Data:
Port of Long Beach: Statistics
Port of Los Angeles: Statistics
The X-12-ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Program
St. Louis Fed: Unemployment Rate


Troy said...

We'll be able to cut that UE rate down to size once the 99-week EUC ends this year. Woohoo!

Stagflationary Mark said...


You'll be "happy" to know that they will continue to be counted as unemployed until they actually stop looking for work and/or find a job. If an unemployed worker gives up looking, then they are considered "discouraged" and are no longer counted as unemployed.

Taken to an extreme, if all jobs were outsourced and/or automated we might have a very low unemployment rate. We might have a very high "discouragement" rate though. Go figure.

How the Government Measures Unemployment

Anonymous said...

Imports back to 2006 levels. 2006 was not a bad year. Sure its not the exponential trend line, but that's just for fun anyways.

I just finished a visit with a customer. My 2007 sales were the highest level with that customer, then they plummeted in 2008, 2009 was slightly better, and 2010 so far is half the 2007 levels, but more than 2009. Sort of matches your graph basically.

2006 is not a bad place to be.

Stagflationary Mark said...


I just wish it wasn't requiring record government borrowing to maintain 2006 levels.

It is good to hear that you are doing well though. Hopefully we can continue to muddle through.