Saturday, September 21, 2013

Revolving Credit vs. Disposable Personal Income (Musical Tribute)

The following chart shows the 10-year moving average of the natural logarithm of the ratio of revolving credit to disposable personal income.


Click to enlarge.

When using natural logarithms, constant growth is seen as a straight line. We aren't seeing a straight line though. Instead, we're seeing a nearly perfect upside down parabola.

Over the long-term, this particular growth engine is done. Stick a fork in it.

The future's so bright I gotta roll over in symphony. (Pun intended.)



Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

5 comments:

dearieme said...

A wag on US foreign policy:

American gun use is out of control. Shouldn't the world intervene?
The death toll from firearms in the US suggests that the country is gripped by civil war.



The great Keynes, as quoted in this morning's Telegraph:

To think output and income can be raised by increasing the quantity of money is rather like trying to get fat by buying a larger belt.

Troy said...

Top 5% is sucking over 33% of the money out of the economy.

$400B trade deficit, same thing.

Our politics are frozen now, so the Fed, being intentionally placed one step removed from partisanship, is the last power center semi-functional in the public sphere.

This chart re-done by income quintile would be more interesting. The story of the previous two decades was everyone borrowing as much money as they could, first in credit cards then in mortgage debt.


Stagflationary Mark said...

dearieme,

Have the Courage to Help a Buddy

My plan to help would be to have every congressman who votes for war be required to lead the charge. Sigh.

Disclosure: As of 2004, I'm a gun owner again (had a .22 rifle as a kid). It's not a coincidence that 2004 was also the year I became an economic permabear. It is ironic and perhaps a bit hypocritical that the lack of gun control encouraged me to do it.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Troy,

This chart re-done by income quintile would be more interesting. The story of the previous two decades was everyone borrowing as much money as they could, first in credit cards then in mortgage debt.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Troy,

We're on the same page.

It's a greed, agreed.