Tuesday, February 11, 2014

JOLTS of Déjà Vu

The following chart shows the semiannual average of the number of job openings divided by the number of hires (as seen in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey).

Click to enlarge.

Note that this ratio appears to be a leading indicator for the last two recessions (too bad there isn't more data to backtest it further).

When the view out the front window (job openings) looks worse than the view out the rear window (hires), then there may be reason for concern (again).

The next chart shows the annual percentage change in the semiannual data.

Click to enlarge.

Let me guess. We can blame the "recent" decline on two years of bad weather?

The financial experts are bracing for this economy to accelerate in 2014. I have but one question. Which direction? Sigh.

This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart #1
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart #2

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