Monday, April 7, 2014

Quote of the Day (Musical Tribute)

April 3, 2014
"5 ETFs for a Relaxed Retired Life"

Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG)

The product returned more than 137% over the past five years.

Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI)

The fund gained nearly 173% over the past five years...

SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF (JNK)

JNK delivered strong returns of 116% over the past five years.

Ah, yes! Look at the relaxing predictable performance that only stocks and junk bonds can provide! Don't let it concern you that the starting point five years ago was during the Great Recession! We can easily repeat this process by sliding into another Great Recession! So simply extrapolate this performance forward and know that the Fed will never allow anything bad to ever happen again!

So what if VIG and VTI are down 2% since this article was written just two trading days ago (awesome timing by the way)? Relax I tell you! There's no need to panic! There are still ample gains to be realized for those who bought in April of 2009! Heck, the market could drop 50% from here and they'd still have gains! See? No point worrying!

And whatever you do, don't let my excessive use of exclamation points get to you! That's just me trying to inspire extra confidence in these trying times!!

Please take a deep breath, lean back in that La-Z-Boy recliner recently purchased on what's left of revolving credit growth, and relax to the smooth, calming sounds of Dream Theater! Crank it up to the point you cannot hear the screams of Jim Cramer on Mad Money! Drown it out! That's what I say!!

Dream Theater - Panic Attack


This is definitely not investment advice.

12 comments:

Rob Dawg said...

You could say in these cases that past performance is a clear indication of expected returns going forward.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Rob Dawg,

This is awesome news for those just starting out too.

If you are 20 years old and put just $1000 into VTI, then you'll have 50 years of growth by the age of 70. And at 173% growth every 5 years, it will grow to a relaxing $23 million.

$1000 x (1+1.73)^(50/5) = $23 million

Of course, that's assuming we don't have any more recessions and that growth will always pick up in the 2nd half of every year. I think those are fairly safe assumptions using a full 5 years of backtesting though.

I'd normally adjust the $23 million for inflation, but since inflation has been so tame over the past 5 years (and has recently been falling), what's the point?

No wonder the future is so bright that I gotta wear shades, lol. Sigh.

Gallows humor.

(The sarcasm seems particularly heavy today. Maybe it's just us though. ;))

Troy said...

I've often wondered what the demographic transition is going to be like 2020-2040.

Theoretically the boomers are supposed to liquidate their savings a bit and Gen Y is supposed to be the buy-side.

But in reality, the top 10% owns 80% of the stocks and 88% of investments overall.

The top 10% aren't going to need liquidate much of anything.

As for the Fed and the system overall, we've got trillions of pension payouts on the line predicated on that 7.5% pa growth to continue, amen.



Stagflationary Mark said...

Troy,

As for the Fed and the system overall, we've got trillions of pension payouts on the line predicated on that 7.5% pa growth to continue, amen.

They had a top performing pension fund manager (for 2013) on CNBC. He said he'd just increased his equity exposure. It was a bit hard to stomach with all those red down arrows as he was talking.

He clearly swang for the fences in 2013 and his gamble paid off. His plan for 2014 is to apparently swing even harder. What's the worst that could happen? :(

Luke The Debtor said...

Bill Gross is swinging for the fences. When I started with my current company 3 years ago, I specifically wanted a certain percent in PIMCO's Total Return. Two months afterwards I was reconsidering my decision, and I am now convinced that Bill Gross is swinging for the fences.

But who can blame Bill when the Fed has a clear "No Creditor Left Behind" mandate?

Oh, I can.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Luke The Debtor,

Ever get the feeling that Bill Gross became the Bond King by swinging for the bond fences for 30+ years but now isn't sure what to do?

For what it is worth, I get that feeling.

Fatboy said...

"recently purchased on what's left of revolving credit growth,"

Negative growth for the last 2 months. Mortgage originations at all time low, beef prices at all time high Blindingly bright future, everyone's flush w/cash.

Rob Dawg said...

Kiplinger's has an article recommending 25 mutual funds. Half a dozen have loads over 1.25% one at 1.38% has returned low single digits for the last 1, 3, 5 years and is too new to have a 10 year return.

AllanF said...

"If you are 20 years old and put just $1000 into VTI, then you'll have 50 years of growth by the age of 70. And at 173% growth every 5 years, it will grow to a relaxing $23 million."

That makes for a tough decision when one turns 60. Retire early and start enjoying the loot, or hold tight one more decade to be securely distanced from all those unwashed masses of single digit millionaires?

I know what the heirs would suggest… start with $2,000.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Fatboy,

Blindingly bright future

There has never been a better time to buy a used Chevy "Nova" with a 19% subprime loan! They aren't making any more! Buy now or forever be priced out!

Stagflationary Mark said...

Rob Dawg,

Half a dozen have loads over 1.25%...

The loads are roughly 4x the yield of the 2 year treasury. That must be a lot of value added management expertise, lol. Sigh.

Stagflationary Mark said...

AllanF,

I know what the heirs would suggest… start with $2,000.

Genius!

Let that additional $1000 grow until 80, then die of old age on schedule.

Gotta love exponential growth! Mwuhahaha! ;)