Tuesday, August 15, 2017

A Penny Stock for Your Thoughts

I bookmarked the following article earlier this year. I thought there would be a high probability that I'd want to revisit it.

January 31, 2017
How J.C. Penney could benefit from Sears' struggles

That was then, this is now.

August 15, 2017
J.C. Penney Shares Suffering Its Worst 5-Day Stretch in Your Lifetime

If you are a department store investor in the age of Amazon, at least you've got that going for you, which is nice.

Forehead. Desk. Whack. Whack. Whack.


dearieme said...

Who could resist a paper called "The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015"?

Housing looks better than equities. TIPS don't get a mention, but then you know your future real return on them (as long as the US doesn't default).


Stagflationary Mark said...


Thanks for the link! That's lot to digest. TIPS haven't been around that long, at least in the USA. Makes sense that they'd have to leave them out.

dearieme said...

There's a bit of chat about that paper in the comments thread here

Stagflationary Mark said...


You are a voice of reason in that chat.

I'm so weary of "over the long-term" and "this is why you need you need a financial advisor" type arguments. So if it doesn't work out, we'll have someone else to blame?

There should at least be a "past performance does not guarantee future results" type argument or an "oops, you picked the wrong country and/or starting time to invest" type argument, especially now in my opinion.

dearieme said...

"oops, you picked the wrong ... starting time to invest": I agree entirely. I suspect that someone investing monthly over several decades need not worry too much about market timing. Anyone investing a large lump sum should think carefully. Maybe two or three times during an investment lifetime, shares (or even bonds) will offer startlingly good or bad value. The lump sum investor should pay attention to such peaks and troughs.

Troy said...


Total Employed / monthly initial claims / 12 = notiional years of job security

The early 80s were pretty tough on people. Thankful my pop had a steady retail mgmt job and we never had a minute of economic insecurity through the volatile 70s and 80s.

Troy said...


Oops, initial claims are weekly, not monthly.

Troy said...

As for rates of return, they can't print land, nor can they import houses from cheap-labor countries, nor can two houses occupy the same space.


red (rising population) and purple (falling interest rates) lines lock the blue line (home prices) to the green line (median income).

Could be worse, the nordic states have really unaffordable real estate, as do Canada, Oz, UK, NZ, etc. etc

Only Germany has their housing act together.

TJandTheBear said...

What's up with River? Worry about that beautiful girl.

If you haven't already, talk to the breeder and see if anything runs in the family. If you're like me (and I know you are in this regard) when she hurts you do too.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Talked to River's breeder multiple times before making the purchase. If something runs in the family, we will be the last to know.

That said, will never regret the purchase, no matter what happens. Love that dog.

We'll get it figured out eventually, or at least find a long-term solution.

One bit of good news. Those tremors she was getting are gone, knock on wood! :)

TJandTheBear said...

Of course no regrets... just want that doll to be healthy.

When we got our first dogs (as a couple) we bought one from a private breeder and the other ordered through a pet store. The former gave the latter Parvo, and we almost lost them both. We barely knew them and yet there was never a question -- whatever it took to get them healthy and home.

Our dogs always get better medical than we do! ;-)

p.s.: Because of the parvo the shepherd had a glass stomach the rest of his life, so we couldn't alter his diet without consequences.

Stagflationary Mark said...

"Our dogs always get better medical than we do! ;-)"

It's true. Always. :)

TJandTheBear said...

Don't have to tell you, but... this is getting scary as hell. Hang in there and stay positive.

Stagflationary Mark said...

We're very worried about River, but she's getting excellent care right now. It's one of the perks to living in a very urban area.

This will be our first time we've been apart for more than 10 minutes since we got her though. Hard on all of us.

And for the benefit of others, our puppy River is having major digestive problems and was just admitted to a 24/7 vet hospital for supportive care.

TJandTheBear said...

Make sure they cover all the bases. I've learned that even the best vets don't check for everything (but I'll spare you the details).

TJandTheBear said...

GOOD NEWS on balance. Are they thinking IBD?

p.s.: You'd be amazed how worried I've been for the past 24 hours over your girl.

Stagflationary Mark said...

My vet's testing for Addison's disease. The emergency vet has all kinds of specialists, which is good. Lots of biopsies done during surgery which should offer a lot of info, but those results will take another 4 days.

TJandTheBear said...

Interesting. Originally sounded like some form of IBD, but Addison's would at least lend itself to a straightforward treatment.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Well, all I gotta say is that I have 2 dogs, only 1 has pet insurance, and fortunately, I picked the right dog!

TJandTheBear said...

What's this "Last Tweet" business?

Stagflationary Mark said...

Twitter has ghost banned me for reasons unknown. I've been nice to everyone on Twitter. I've only posted puppy pictures and played hashtag games. That's it.

I will be deleting my Twitter account shortly and I will never rejoin. I really try to not support businesses that treat me poorly. Twitter has treated me poorly. I've had my account locked/suspended in the past, pictures of my puppy marked as sensitive, and now I'm ghost banned.

I've had my fill of Twitter. It's too bad. I enjoyed interacting with the users of Twitter, just not Twitter itself. Go figure.

Hey, Twitter. I'm not John Wick, but do not shun my dog. My dog and I will leave and tell the world how you wronged us.

TJandTheBear said...

Understood. Sad day... been shepherd-living vicariously through your posts, even the painful ones.

I've always used Twitter simply to follow and almost never anything else, i.e., replies, retweets or favorites. Too easy to run afoul of something or someone idiotic out there. However, it's been great for keeping abreast of various informational sources.

Perhaps you can do a River blog instead? We've really grown quite fond of your girl!

Stagflationary Mark said...

I think I'm done with social media.

That said, 6 people from twitter actually gave me their email addresses privately so I'm mass emailing them River's continuing story.

If you want to be added to the list, just email me. I'm using bcc to protect email addresses. Nobody else will need to know and you won't have to interact with anyone. :)