Sunday, February 21, 2021

The 30 Trillion Dollar Elephant in the Room

The following chart shows household and nonprofit debt. I have added an exponential trend line in red based on the data from 1952 to 2007.


We are now $30 trillion below the consumer debt trend that was in place for 55 years. Ben Bernanke once said that credit is the lifeblood of our economy. The lifeblood is certainly not pumping like it once did. Is it any wonder that Janet Yellen is practically begging for more fiscal stimulus?

While others talk of an economy that will soon temporarily overheat, I ponder what this elephant's continuing long-term impact on real GDP growth will be and if yet another elephant will appear in a post-pandemic world.

See no elephants, hear no elephants, speak no elephants.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Households and Nonprofit Organizations; Debt Securities and Loans; Liability, Level

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