Saturday, July 24, 2021

Timing the 5-Year Treasury Note Yield’s Return to Normal

The following chart shows the natural log of the 5-year yield. When using natural logs, constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line. I have added two such straight lines in red for your amusement.


At its current yield of just 0.71%, at what point did it ever become abnormal? After all, its natural log is currently centered between the two trend lines. What could be more normal than that?
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2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Ok. If you don’t start dumbing down your posts, then I’m going back to watching the Kardashians.

July 24, 2021 at 6:40 PM
Stagflationary Mark said...

Anonymous,

If you think you’ve got it bad, get this.

I was just forced to approve a comment mentioning the Kardashians!

It gets worse. It cost me $100. In 2020, I made a Las Vegas style bet at 1 to 100 odds that I could go an entire year without Kardashians being mentioned on my blog. Figured it was the easiest dollar I’d ever make!

Damn my heavily leveraged easy money “sure thing” risk taking!! ;)

July 24, 2021 at 7:12 PM

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