Thursday, November 10, 2022

Gimme Shelter

The following chart shows the natural log of the CPI for shelter. When using natural logs, constant exponential growth is seen as a straight line. I have added long-term trend lines in red.

With lofty housing prices and lofty mortgage rates, it seems very unlikely that we're going to make it back to the top of the trend channel anytime soon. Which, if you think about it, is kind of odd. I could swear that the Fed really wanted that. Just not all at once, apparently. Too bad.

If I were a gambling man, I would wager that there is more risk leaving the channel to the downside than to the upside. And maybe I am a gambling man, because I continue to hold TLT. Very encouraged by today's CPI report. One battle doesn't win the war though, of course.


Mr Slippery said...

Helter Shelter
Coming down fast from miles above you

Mr Slippery said...

loans were such an easy to game to play
now I need a place to hide my pay
oh, I believe in yesterday

stocks are half of what they used to be
There's no shadow banking over me
Oh, yesterday came suddenly

Stagflationary Mark said...


Wait, oh yes, wait a minute, Mister Bankman
Wait, wai-ai-ai-ait Mister Bankman
Mister Bankman look and see
(Oh, yeah) Is there a bitcoin bagholder in me?
(Please, please, Mister Bankman) I been waiting a long, long time
(Oh, yeah) Since I heard of that coin of mine
There must be some word today
From the exchange so far away
Please, Mister Bankman, look and see
If there's a bitcoin, a bitcoin for me
I been standing here waiting, Mister Bankman
So patiently
For just a note about my bitcoin
Saying it’s returning home to me

Mr Slippery said...


I rotate my doom scrolling among Ukraine, Twitter, and crypto. Full time disaster spectator. Will add a 4th rail when DeSantis declares he is running for prez.

Stagflationary Mark said...

I’m trying to find a common theme in your doom scrolling list.

Recent headlines:

“Ukraine in direct contact with Musk amid Starlink drama”
“Elon Musk's Twitter Meltdown Is the Greatest Show on Earth”
“Elon Musk Names His Top 3 Cryptocurrencies”
“Who is Ron DeSantis? The Elon Musk-backed governor people are calling the next Trump”

So far, I’m drawing a blank, man. It’s like trying to find a musky version of the grand unified theory of physics! ;)