The Yule Backlog

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These are the stories that the Dogs tell when the fires burn high and the wind is from the north. - Clifford D. Simak

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: ISM Manufacturing: Backlog of Orders Index

Manufacturing Construction Spending per Manufacturing Employee

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See Also:
Candy Mountain Revisited

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

The Health of Retail Trade Employment

First, let's go with what we are told.

BLS: Retail Sales Workers: Job Outlook

Employment of retail salespersons has traditionally grown with the overall economy, and this trend is expected to continue. Population growth will increase retail sales and demand for these workers.

Although consumers are increasing their online retail shopping, they will continue to do most of their retail shopping in stores. Retail salespersons will be needed in stores to help customers and complete sales.

Now that we've read that and have no doubt turned optimistic, let's go look at some actual charts to back the theory.


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Oh, yeah. That's looking real good long-term. We're not done yet though. Let's keep digging.


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When it comes to hours worked per week, we never did bounce back from the 1970s.


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Did I mention that we never did bounce back from the 1970s? Further, it would seem we've recently been attempting to duplicate the effect with high real oil prices and the added bonus of increased retail automation.

As seen in the following link, we apparently have some of the most educated retail workers in the history of our country. And yet, real hourly earnings have declined and continue to do so. If this isn't an illusion of prosperity then I don't know what is.

July 08, 2012
College Grads Find Retail a (Meager) Route to Job Market

Students with advanced degrees have been unable to find jobs consistent with their skill set, leading to a heavy influx of overqualified young people in retail positions that typically require no more than a high school diploma.

Source Data:
BLS: Current Employment Statistics
St. Louis Fed: CPI

Real Office Construction per Employee Added

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The line in black shows the money spent on office construction per month adjusted for inflation (October 2012 dollars, in billions). If one adds up all the monthly data and adjusts for inflation, there has been $588 billion spent on office construction since the year 2000.

The line in blue shows nonfarm payrolls. There have been 2.97 million employees added since 2000.

Since 2000, $198,000 has been spent on office construction per nonfarm payroll job added.

$588,000 million / 2.97 million = $198,000

Using hindsight, does that appear to be money well spent?

On the one hand, not every payroll employee added actually works in an office. On the other hand, not every office building that existed in 2000 still exists today. Sigh.

Is it really any wonder that office construction has been in a downward trend for the last decade or so? When job growth began to fail, so too the need to build new offices.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

Fake Prosperity?

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Update:

Rob Dawg wished to see an exponential trend from 1961 to 1991.


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The chart above sums up why there was a question mark in my first chart. If the true trend is an exponential growth curve then we're right on trend for the most part. I just find it hard to believe that the dotcom bubble and the housing bubble got us there.


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And lastly, this chart captures the spirit of Rob Dawg's point. It's a fairly good fit. If this is the true trend then there is a bit more fake prosperity than the first chart shows (since the true long-term trend would be bending downwards).

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

The Sarcasm Report v.174

November 30, 2012
You're 55 and have $100K to invest. What to do?

Keep your costs down and don't settle for meager returns if playing catch-up

Emphasis added.

Hail Mary Pass

A Hail Mary pass or Hail Mary route in American football refers to any very long forward pass made in desperation with only a small chance of success, especially at or near the end of a half.

The expression goes back at least to the 1930s...

Ah, yes. The Great Desperation strikes again. Hail Mary time!



And if that doesn't work...



There's nothing quite like a well executed confidence game to even the odds.

Please Be Seated

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AIRodyssey: Inflight passenger announcements

“Ladies and gentlemen, as we start our descent, please make sure your seat backs and tray tables are in their full upright position. Make sure your seat belt is securely fastened and all carry-on luggage is stowed underneath the seat in front of you or in the overhead bins. Please turn off all electronic devices until we are safely parked at the gate. Thank you.”

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Personal Saving Rate

Real Personal Current Taxes per Civilian Employed

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An optimist would exclaim, "Yay! The government's going to lower taxes and the number of civilian employed will increase dramatically! That's clearly how we'll make it back to the median trend line in red. No worries!"

Unfortunately, I'm not an optimist.

1. The largest peak was in the early 2000s. We returned to the median. It was painful.
2. The second largest peak was in the late 2007 to early 2008 period. We returned to the median. It was painful.
3. We seem to be peaking again.
4. What's up with that blue trend line?
5. Who's up for a game of fiscal cliff diving?

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart