Corporate Profits vs. Wages

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It's déjà vu all over again. - Yogi Berra

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Corporate Profits / Wages

Extreme Initial Claims Danger v.35

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An optimist might tell you that this is the first inning of the recovery. We will return to the red trend line as the economy begins to strengthen. For what it is worth, I am not an optimist. I believe that the next major trend change in initial claims will be to the upside.

Please note that versions 32 through 34 of these posts are permanently missing. I took a break for a few weeks. Sorry about that! In my defense, not much has changed since I last posted.

Oh sure, there was a feigned attempt to revisit the red trend line in my absence. I guess there was that. Perhaps the red trend line attracted a few red herrings. Sigh.

It is also a literary device employed by writers that leads readers or characters towards a false conclusion, often used in mystery or detective fiction.

The job market sure is a mystery, a conundrum so to speak. It's almost like jobs are being automated and outsourced faster than we can think up new ones. Yeah, it's almost exactly like that. Go figure.

See Also:
Extreme Initial Claims Danger v.31 (Musical Tribute)

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Initial Claims
DOL: Initial Claims

Weekly Layoff Odds

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I have just one thing to say to those who believe that the Fed can keep us permanently below the long-term median.

Good luck on that theory.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Initial Claims / Nonfarm Payrolls

Exponential Trend Failure of the Day

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Does this mean that the new homes of the future won't all come with wall-to-wall granite flooring? Shocked! Shocked I tell you!

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Real Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold

Real GDP vs. Aggregate Hours Worked

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The sustainability of real GDP growth from here is just one of those things that I do not trust. Go figure.

On the one hand, correlation does not prove causation.

On the other hand, I don't need proof to be distrustful. If I'm walking late at night and an unmarked van pulls up to me and everyone in the van is wearing ski masks, then I definitely better see some snow and some skis. Let's just put it that way. And truth be told, I'd still be distrustful.

And on that third hand, how many trillions more will/can we borrow to prop up real GDP?

This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Real GDP vs. Aggregate Hours Worked

Forcing Construction Jobs Back on Trend!

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I'll bet you $100 that we will never make it back to the blue trend line *and* that my name isn't Captain Awesome.

Easy money! That's two ways you can win! Any takers?

Before you place your bet, I should probably warn you that I don't live in Oregon. That might affect the odds of the surest way to make the $100, lol. Sigh.

Without gallows sarcasm all is lost.

See Also:
Happy Construction Labor Day

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Construction Employees per Capita

Treasury Billmageddon!

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Okay, there's some sensationalized sarcasm in this post's title and in the chart. I admit it. I never claimed to be a respectable economic journalist! Hey, I'm just a computer and physics guy with a sarcastic sense of humor. You get what you pay for on this free (deflationary) and mostly anonymous blog. ;)

In all seriousness, much to the dismay of typical economic pundits (think CNBC and/or Jeremy Siegel) it would seem hard to have a full-blown treasury bond rate explosion in the near-term if we can't even get the 3-month treasury bill to yield one-tenth of one-percent on a regular basis. Just a thought!

So what does this mean? I had no problem locking in a 3.53% yield for 20 years on EE Savings Bonds in January yet again. That's the yield one gets if one buys the bond today and holds 20 years (since they are guaranteed to double in value over the period).

2^(1/20) = 1.0353

The same may not be said for those who buy in May (when rates and possibly terms will next be changed). Should rates continue to remain this low on the short end of the curve, then eventually someone within government might decide that 25 years would be a more suitable time frame for EE Bonds to double in value. Just a hunch.

I can't say that 3.53% is an absolute bargain (hindsight may show that it wasn't), but it definitely beats the current 2.79% yield on the 20-year Treasury. In other words, long-term savers could certainly be doing worse.

I am a relative interest rate and inflation agnostic these days. I have virtually no opinion on what either will be doing 10 years from now. If I was forced to guess under penalty of death, I'd probably say more of the same. Put another way, I think the entire global economy is as @#$%ed over the next decade as it has been for the last decade. Call me a permabear.

This is not investment advice.

Source Data:
FRB: Selected Interest Rates
US Treasury: Yield Curve Rates

40.7 Million Missing Jobs (Musical Tribute)

Long-Term


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@#$%!


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@#$%!


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@#$%!

Short-Term


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@#$%!


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@#$%!


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@#$%!

Some are arguing that we're in the first inning of the recovery. If the above chart is any indicator, I'd say the game's about over.

Let's take it back to 1984 yet again.


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@#$%!

The next chart shows nonfarm payrolls per capita. Can there ever be too many ugly charts in one post?



On the off chance we're heading back to the 1960s, here's a musical tribute to go with it.



See Also:
41.1 Million Missing Jobs

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: All Employees: Total nonfarm
St. Louis Fed: Nonfarm Payrolls per Capita