Penny Profits

November 7, 2013
J.C. Penney reports first monthly sales increase since 2011

J.C. Penney Co. said Thursday that a 0.9 percent increase in October same-store sales, its first year-over-year monthly increase in almost two years, signals “meaningful progress in its turnaround.”

0.9 percent is almost exactly what apparel inflation has done over the past year. Way to go JC Penney! Very impressive!

The increase in sales wasn’t due to more customers or higher prices; Penney reported that store traffic and per-item prices were still down from a year ago.

Probably best if existing JC Penney employees did not demand a raise at the present time. Just sayin'.

But profitability took a hit from all the clearance merchandise and the chain’s aggressive return to coupons and discounts.

We're certainly getting an early start this year. This economy's poised for clearance! Everything must go!

Speaking of demanding a raise...

November 7, 2013
Washington city votes to raise minimum wage to $15

The SeaTac initiative will raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour for hospitality and transportation workers in and near Seattle-Tacoma International Airport. The current minimum wage in Washington State is $9.19.

This measure was strongly supported by SeaTac's many, many hospitality and transportation workers. Go figure. I'm just a bit surprised that it was only a 63% increase. Surely people willing to vote themselves $15 per hour would also be willing to accept $18.38. Double or nothing next time!

Where is the frickin' Free Maple Donut Fridays ballot measure? Do I have to do everything myself? Surely it would be popular! Who doesn't love free stuff! Every business should be required to provide free maple donuts to anyone who asks, but only on Fridays. No need to be greedy here.

The naysayers may insist that there may be a few unintended consequences. Some may wish to hoard a week's worth of donuts every Friday. Free donuts for life? Others may not trust that the measure would stay in effect forever and hoard even more than a week's worth at a time. Are those really problems though? Think of the increased freezer sales adding to GDP!

And what about the increased energy usage? Not a problem! Free Electricity Mondays! Coming soon to a ballot near you! Exponentially increasing unintended consequences offer exponentially increasing intended solutions! We just need to stay on top of them and manage this economy from crisis to crisis, just like we have been doing!


File:Bacon donut.jpg (Mike McCune)

Are you with me? Hell yes! Let us eat maple donuts!

Barking Up the Wrong Tree

The following chart shows annual production and nonsupervisory logging employee hours worked.


Click to enlarge.

That dog don't hunt.

Unless the long-term trend changes, it would seem that about the only logging we'll be doing in the distant future will require a username and password.

October 9, 2013
Here’s the Report That May Have Prompted The Lumber Liquidators Raid

Conservation groups say forests in Russia’s far east are known for large scale illegal cutting operations. Illegal logging brigades comb forests for high-quality varieties like Mongolian oak and Korean pine, cutting down trees in the middle of the night and passing them along to illegal saw mills. From there, traders mix the illegal wood with legal wood and Chinese manufacturers use fake documentation to smuggle so-called black wood out of Russia to sell to Western retailers.

Source Data:
BLS: Employment

The Economy Is Accelerating

The following chart shows real manufacturers' nondefense capital goods (excluding aircraft) new orders per capita (September 2013 dollars).


Click to enlarge.

It is accelerating almost exactly like a baseball would after it has been hit up into the air. Pardon my language, but gravity's a bitch.

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart

The Future of Advertising Is Here (Musical Tribute)

The following was a comment left for me on the last post.

Definitely believe that whih you stated. Your favourite justification seemed to be on the internet the easiest facftor to understand of. I say to you, I certainly get annoyed while other people consider issues that they just don't recognize about. You managed to hit the nail upon the top as smartly as defined out the whole thing without having side effect , other folks can take a signal. Will probably be again to get more.

It included a link to an extended auto warranty website.

Turing Test

The Turing test is a test of a machine's ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human. In the original illustrative example, a human judge engages in natural language conversations with a human and a machine designed to generate performance indistinguishable from that of a human being. All participants are separated from one another. If the judge cannot reliably tell the machine from the human, the machine is said to have passed the test.

Human? Machine? You make the call.



Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt. - Abraham Lincoln

The Future's So Bright I Gotta Rent Tires

June 08, 2013
High prices are driving more motorists to rent tires

Eric Malone, who owns eight RimTyme stores in North Carolina, Virginia and Georgia, was drawn to the business by the high profit potential. RimTyme averages more than $1.4 million a year in sales across its 25 locations, nearly double the take at parent company Rent-a-Center's traditional furniture and electronics stores.

His employees make about three repossessions a week....

U-192

German submarine U-192

During her maiden voyage in May 1943 she disappeared without a trace, along with her 55 crew.

Why don't you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don't you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don't you say something righteous and hopeful for a change? - Oddball

October 30, 2013
Passenger traffic fairly flat at Port Columbus last month

There were 501,354 passengers in and out of the local airport, an increase of 192, which is less than one-tenth of 1 percent.

For the year so far, the number of passengers is down 3 percent at Port Columbus, a trend that has been noted at airports across the country.

Shouldn't have gone down the negative waves path. Should have said something righteous and hopeful for a change. Perhaps it is not too late.

These 192 extra people will no doubt lead to all sorts of exciting extra retail sales and employment opportunities for the one person with a well positioned food truck! So what if the trend is down at airports across the country! Gotta keep the faith!

Christmas 2013: Hobby, Toy, and Game Stores

The following chart shows the year over year percent change in aggregate hours worked by production and nonsupervisory employees at hobby, toy, and game stores.


Click to enlarge.

We're certainly heading into the Christmas season with plenty of momentum. I'll give the optimists that. Some might argue that the momentum is in the wrong direction though.

Source Data:
BLS: Employment

Yow 10,000

The following chart shows real federal government current receipts per capita (June 2013 dollars).


Click to enlarge.

Worry not about the steepness of the climb. This bad boy's totally sustainable. I can feel it in my bones.

Yow 10,000! Put on the party hats! Just look at all that momentum! This economy is unstoppable again! Now that one of the last bears has finally capitulated, what could possibly go wrong?

October 20, 2013
Top Bear's Bullish Tilt Has Followers Growling

One of Wall Street's leading bears has turned more bullish, riling some longtime clients.

Gotta love his timing. I guess he just needed confirmation that the stock market was a sure thing. It's climbed 160% over the last 4 years or so. Sure thing it is! Can't lose! What more proof do you need? The government will soon be rolling in too much revenue. We'll be too prosperous! That's right. You heard me. I'm capitulating too!

Mr. Rosenberg became more positive on stocks when he determined that chances of another economic downturn had dropped amid the Federal Reserve's aggressive actions.

No more economic downturns! No unintended consequences! Just genius move after genius move by the very same Fed who could not spot a housing bubble as it was peaking. Hurray! I'm talking directly to you Ben "There Is No Housing Bubble to Go Bust" Bernanke. Well played, sir. Well played.

There's gravy and biscuits in it for you, and by that I mean gobs of money. - Claptrap, Borderlands

Disclosure: I'm not really capitulating. I trust this economy long-term about as far as I can throw up. (Over Fed pun intended.)

Source Data:
St. Louis Fed: Custom Chart