"I think earnings are misstated and sort of a complete mirage."

September 30, 2015
Carl Icahn: I think markets are overpriced, earnings are misstated

"I think earnings are misstated and sort of a complete mirage," he said Wednesday.

On the Illusion of Prosperity blog, we are not believers in mirage theories!

Oops. I just got a text from my lawyer. He warns me not to use "we" when there is only one of me. He also states that I should not swear to disbelief in mirage theories under oath. He's concerned that illusions and mirages might be similar in the eyes of the law. Imaginary lawyers. Whatcha gonna do?

First World Problem of the Day

Early this morning I went to Planet Fitness to exercise. When I arrived, there was a guy practicing/tuning a trumpet. I didn't give it much thought but after 30 minutes I felt the need to say something about it. It was loud enough that the notes were sneaking through my headphones as I nearly blissfully listened to Spotify.

Should I say something? Or not? I don't know his situation. What if he's the owner? I'd definitely want to say something. What if he's just some guy down on his luck and living out of his car? I don't think I'd want to say anything. In the end, I figured the truth probably lied somewhere between the two extremes.

Do I talk to the employee about it? I don't know. Seems kind of cowardly. I wasn't looking to get anyone in trouble. This is the same employee who warned me when I joined not to listen to music so that others could hear it. I appreciated that. And yet, everyone could hear that trumpet. Very confusing. And when I say everyone, I mean the trumpet player, another person working out, the one employee, and me. It was 3am. Not many people there.

Perhaps it was best just to ask the trumpet player to play softer and explain that I could hear it through my headphones. I decided to do that, even though I know how nearly impossible it would be to play a trumpet softly. He was very nice about it. He stopped and then left.

I exercised for another 90 minutes, took a shower, and as I was walking out the door I decided to ask the employee what the story was. He said the guy lives in his car and he lets him play when there aren't many people around. He tends to do it once every few weeks.

Damn. That was one of the scenarios that actually went through my head before I complained.

Moral of the Story

Complaining about first world problems, especially to those with bigger problems, may end up making you feel like a schmuck.

Why did I do it? It rarely ends well. At best, a tiny violin should play. At worst, well, yeah. Been there, done that. Today!

Live and let live. I really try to live by that but every now and then I lose my way.

Quote of the Day

September 30, 2015
How to draw down your retirement savings

When markets are in a downturn, "great, tighten the belt," Ward said. Conversely, a strong market can enable retirees to draw down a bit more, since they will still be leaving plenty of savings in the portfolio.

Markets have been in a downturn this year. Great, tighten the belt. And if enough people tighten the belts, the markets will continue the downturn.

Where might it end? Great Depression II tightens the rust belt?

Aren't death spirals fun? Many financial experts like to talk about the wealth effect. What they don't often say is that it can easily work in both directions. Sigh.

10 Jobs Hiring Older Workers

September 21, 2015
MSN Money: 10 jobs hiring older workers

This article has offered up some real job prosperity for those aged 50 and over (like me). No doubt about it. Check out the wages that our lifetime of experience can generate!

Median Hourly Wage

1. $12.19
2. $12.81
3. $12.72
4. $11.74
5. $11.24
6. $12.72
7. $11.16
8. $11.51
9. $11.90
10. $23.14

If you are like me, then I know what you are thinking. Job #10 please!! It might not match the pay of a CEO, but it is certainly vastly superior to the rest in the list!

That's the Bridge Tender job. If you have a lot of bridge tending experience and live in a city with thousands of bridges then I would encourage you to apply. The federal, state, and local governments are practically giving these jobs away!

Forehead. Desk. Whack. Depressing. Whack. Depressing. Whack. Depressing. Sigh.

Quote of the Day

September 28, 2015
JC Penney: When the Ceiling Becomes the Floor

Shares of J.C. Penney (JCP) have gained 50% this year, which means it’s time for an analyst upgrade.

History shows that the best time to upgrade a stock is right after it has risen the equivalent of 15 years of 30-year treasury bond interest in just one year.

In related news, JC Penney is currently trading down 2.96% as I type this. No worries. That's only 1 year of 30-year treasury bond interest. If it continues to fall at its current rate, there won't be a downgrade for a fortnight (14 days), lol. Sigh.

Analysts and generally crappy timing, baby. That's what I'm talking about.

This is not investment advice. I have no opinion on where this stock goes from here. I can say this though. I'm certainly not buying JC Penney based on a Wall Street analyst opinion. If it was such a sure thing, why would they tell me? Generosity? A willingness to offer free profitable advice to their fellow man? Did Henry Blodget teach us nothing?

"Considerable Margins of Safety"

December 29, 2014
Why I'm Backing A Brilliant 2015 For BHP Billiton plc, Glencore plc And Rio Tinto plc

However, it is mostly as a result of the considerable margins of safety that are currently on offer through BHP, Rio Tinto and Glencore that I’m bullish on their share price prospects for 2015. It could be a stunning year for investors in all three companies.

Glencore? Brilliant 2015? Stunning year? Got TASER?

Of course, finding the most appealing stocks for next year is not an easy task. That's especially the case if, like most private investors, you lack the time to trawl through the FTSE looking for the best opportunities.

All that time spent trawling and all he's got to show for it is an old tire, a washcloth, a waterlogged sneaker, and a selfie with his "best opportunities" treasure, lol. Sigh.

September 28, 2015
Glencore craters 29% as analysts fear debt will ‘evaporate’ stock’s value

Glencore GLEN, -29.42% GLCNF, -27.70% shares have now lost 76% in value year-to-date, as the miner and trader struggles with weak results, slumping metals prices and broader concerns about its balance sheet.

Excessive debt and leverage. Whatcha gonna do?

Quote of the Day

September 28, 2015
One strategist admits he was wrong about oil stocks and thinks this admission could make him wrong again

"Firstly, we are downgrading energy from overweight to market-weight," Parker writes. "We made a really bad call by going overweight energy at the beginning of this year... We are clearly burned by our wrong overweight, and worry that this downgrade could be the beginning of an energy rally."

This is the very same strategist from Morgan Stanley who just told us that all we think we know is wrong.

It's official. Today is Opposite Day, lol. Sigh.

The Sarcasm Report v.246

September 28, 2015
Morgan Stanley's stock market guru explains why everything you know is worthless

Everything you think you know is wrong.

Here is something I thought I knew. Morgan Stanley didn't understand risk heading into the Great Recession.

August 22, 2011
Morgan Stanley at Brink of Collapse Got $107 Billion From Fed

Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- As markets convulsed in September 2008, Morgan Stanley Treasurer David Wong briefed the Federal Reserve on a “dark” scenario in which the U.S. firm would need at least $10 billion of emergency loans from the central bank.

It got 10 times darker by month’s end. Morgan Stanley borrowed $107.3 billion, the most of any bank, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News using information released in response to Freedom of Information Act requests, related court orders and an act of Congress.

Pretentious asswipes.

I thought it was wrong to swear on this blog, but apparently I was mistaken. What can I say? Everything we thought we knew is wrong.