Sunday, November 18, 2012

Anecdotal Evidence of a TIPS Bubble?


Bloomberg: United States Government Bonds

Bloomberg no longer displays what the TIPS rates are (treasury inflation protected securities). For years, that's where I've gone to see real-time TIPS rates. And now... poof. They're gone.

In my very best valley girl accent, I'm like... WTF!

Am I the only one left in America who actually wants to know? If that's the case, it sure would be a first in the modern era of interesting investment bubbles.

For now, I'll just have to amuse myself by watching the price of SFE Greasy Wool. That's right. I can still find the price of it.

Bloomberg: Agricultural Commodity Prices

As of today, SFE Greasy Wool is 1,120 cents per kilogram. Oh, yes. Thanks Bloomberg. That's a great substitute. All is well now. I can just feel all the pent-up demand for Greasy Wool charts, lol. Can't you?

What is Bloomberg thinking? Have they moved the TIPS rates somewhere else and I simply can't find them? Please let me know if you spot them. I suppose it is possible that these United States Government Bonds are no longer within the United States Government Bonds area.

As a side note, ever watch CNBC and see the TIPS rates displayed at the top of the screen? Yeah, me neither.

So what would it mean if long-term nominal treasuries really were in a bubble but long-term TIPS weren't? Well, one would expect to see the economy stagnate as the consumer price index moves unexpectedly higher at some point in the future. Sigh.

It is certainly not a prediction, but with a name like Stagflationary Mark I'm not exactly the best person to rule it out. It would be way too hypocritical.

That said, I suspect there could be even less inflationary pressure this Christmas than there was last Christmas. The operative word is "could".

This is not investment advice.


Rob Dawg said...

Interesting datum. Hard disks. Finally moving lower again. The natural disasters in SE Asia made for a spike in pricing authority. If we had continued the previous $/Tb we'd be around $30 instead we see $70. Higher than just before the disruptions. Gave SSDs a chance to close the price gap while maintaining the obvious performance advantage. Great spectator sport. Not so much fun to play.

Mr Slippery said...

You can always get them from the Source.

Jazzbumpa said...

Mr. S

You have to drill down to the TIPS page.


Stagflationary Mark said...

Rob Dawg,

Great spectator sport. Not so much fun to play.

Indeed. I'm not known to hoard hard disks. The day one can hoard hard disks long-term as a store of wealth will not be a pleasant one for any of us I suspect.

Stagflationary Mark said...

Mr Slippery and Jazzbumpa,

Yeah, I'm aware of those sources. I refer to them often.

Unfortunately, it's not real-time. The former is updated once per day and the latter is updated once per auction. Sigh.

dearieme said...

Wisdom from the Bank of England: "We face the rather unappealing combination of a subdued recovery with inflation remaining above target for a while."

There oughta be a word for that combination.

Stagflationary Mark said...


There oughta be a word for that combination.

I'm tempted to say prosperity, but something tells me that's not quite right. Does it start with an "s" by any chance?

I know! Sweet!

The combination ought to show up in sweet potato prices! Yes!

It all makes sense now. ;)